The article by Xian Chun Xu, a prominent economist, highlights the key features of China’s economy in the first half of 2024 and discusses the potential growth drivers for the second half of the year. The analysis is based on statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Key features of China’s economy in the first half of 2024:
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From a production perspective:
- The secondary industry maintained a relatively high growth rate, while the growth rate of the tertiary industry declined.
- Industrial value-added maintained steady and rapid growth, while the growth rate of construction value-added declined.
- High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth, indicating an optimization of the industrial structure.
- The growth rate of the majority of service industries declined, but modern service industries such as information transmission, software, and information technology services maintained rapid growth.
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From a demand perspective:
- Consumption played a primary role in driving economic growth, but its impact weakened.
- Investment demand’s role in driving growth increased, providing support for economic growth.
- Online retail sales maintained rapid growth, supporting the growth of total retail sales.
- Fixed asset investment growth slowed, but high-tech industry investment maintained rapid growth.
- Goods imports and exports maintained rapid growth, with the structure of goods exports continuing to optimize.
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From an income perspective:
- Per capita disposable income maintained stable growth, with rural residents’ income growing faster than urban residents.
- The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises maintained growth, but there was a significant divergence among different industries.
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From a price perspective:
- Consumer prices rose slightly, reversing the downward trend of the previous year.
- Producer prices continued to decline, but the decline narrowed significantly.
Key growth drivers for the second half of 2024:
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Export growth is expected to remain strong.
- Trade volume growth in the first half of the year was strong, with export and import growth rates both higher than in the first quarter.
- The growth momentum is good, and the monthly data shows that export growth reached its highest level since April 2023 in June.
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Policy support for consumption and investment demand.
- Various policies are expected to provide support for consumption and investment demand, which will help stabilize economic growth.
Xian Chun Xu’s analysis provides a comprehensive overview of China’s economic performance in the first half of 2024 and offers insights into the potential growth drivers for the second half of the year. Despite challenges such as extreme weather, flooding, and weak consumption, the economy is expected to be supported by strong exports and policy measures aimed at stimulating domestic demand.
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