产能过剩并非卡脖的梦魇，而是“成长的烦恼” – 东西智库
This article, published by the DongxiThink Tank, argues that concerns about China’s excess capacity are overblown and represent a growing pain rather than a chokehold nightmare.It refutes the notion that China’s economic scale is too large for the world to absorb, a claim often used by Western countries to justify trade barriers.
Here’s a breakdown of the key arguments and information presented in the article:
1. Defining and Measuring Excess Capacity:
- The article clarifies that excess capacity refers to a situation where production capacity exceedsdemand and reasonable output levels, particularly in manufacturing.
- It highlights that both China and the US use similar metrics to define capacity, focusing on sustainable maximum output under normal operating conditions.
- The article discusses the use of capacity utilizationrate (actual output divided by production capacity) as a common indicator. While a rate above 85% suggests insufficient capacity and below 75% indicates severe excess, recent economic evidence shows a global downward trend in utilization rates, leading to adjustments in these thresholds.
2. Examining China’s CurrentSituation:
- The article acknowledges that China has experienced cyclical excess capacity in various industries since the reform and opening-up, including textiles, appliances, coal, steel, and power.
- It argues that the causes of supply-demand fluctuations in China’s transition period are complex, involving both short-term economicinterests of companies and local government performance pressures.
- The article emphasizes the role of government regulation in addressing excess capacity, citing the 2013 State Council’s guidelines on resolving severe excess capacity in industries like steel, cement, aluminum, and shipbuilding.
- It highlights the positive impact of these measures oncapacity utilization rates, which have risen significantly since 2016, indicating market optimization and the removal of low-end, inefficient supply.
3. Addressing Concerns About Recent Declines in Utilization Rates:
- The article acknowledges the recent decline in capacity utilization rates but argues for a nuanced perspective, considering globaleconomic conditions, industry specifics, and historical context.
- It points out that the post-pandemic decline in utilization rates is not unique to China, affecting major industrial nations worldwide.
- The article emphasizes that China’s utilization rates have remained relatively stable and even narrowed the gap with traditional industrial powers like the US andGermany.
- It highlights that low utilization rates in emerging industries, like photovoltaics, should not be interpreted as a sign of excess capacity or a lack of future potential.
4. Illustrating the Importance of a Long-Term Perspective:
- The article uses the example of the photovoltaic industry to demonstratehow low utilization rates can be a temporary phenomenon during the early stages of development and technological innovation.
- It highlights how the industry, despite facing challenges and excess capacity concerns, has experienced significant growth and become a global leader.
- The article emphasizes that focusing solely on quantitative indicators like utilization rates can be misleading, as they only reflect existing conditions and fail to account for dynamic factors like technological advancements and market evolution.
5. Emphasizing the Resilience of China’s Economy:
- The article concludes by emphasizing the resilience of China’s economy and its ability to overcome challenges, citing the example of traditional industries that havecontinued to develop despite facing temporary supply-demand imbalances.
- It argues that China’s economic growth is driven by innovation, technological advancement, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
- The article encourages a positive outlook on China’s economic future, emphasizing the country’s strengths and its potential forcontinued progress.
Overall, the article provides a balanced and insightful perspective on the issue of excess capacity in China, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of the complex factors at play and a long-term perspective on the country’s economic development.
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