According to a recent report by the semiconductor industry organization SEMI, the global semiconductor market is set to experience consecutive annual revenue growth of 20% over the next two years. This optimistic forecast is driven by the复苏 of the storage sector and the surging demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications.
SEMI’s Senior Director of Industry Research, Tseng Jui-yu, made these remarks during a press briefing yesterday, as reported by the Taiwan-based CNA news agency. Tseng highlighted that the robust growth is attributed to two primary factors: the revival of the storage market and the strong demand for AI-related chips.
Revenue Growth Projections
For the current year, Tseng expects the global semiconductor revenue to grow by 20% year-on-year. However, this projection is contingent on the inclusion of the storage segment. Excluding storage, the growth rate would be halved to 10%. Furthermore, if AI-related chip products are also excluded, the growth rate would drop to a mere 3%.
Looking ahead to next year, Tseng predicts a healthy recovery in the semiconductor market, driven by the depletion of inventory in communication, industrial, and automotive supply chains. This is expected to result in a continued annual growth rate of 20%.
Industry Insights
SEMI provided additional insights into the semiconductor industry’s current and future trends. For instance, the sales of global electronic devices in the first half of 2024 are expected to remain largely flat compared to the same period last year. However, the third quarter is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 4%, with the full-year growth rate anticipated to be between 3% to 5%. This is slightly lower than the previous estimate of 5% to 7%.
Regarding the wafer fabs, the capacity utilization rate hit a trough in the first quarter of this year. Since then, there has been a gradual recovery, with the third quarter expected to reach 70% utilization. The fourth quarter is forecasted to see further复苏.
Equipment Market and Silicon Wafer Shipments
The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to witness a modest year-on-year growth of 3% this year, reaching $1095 billion (approximately 7786.88 billion yuan). Next year, driven by demand in advanced processing and packaging sectors, the market is projected to grow by 16%, reaching $1275 billion.
In terms of silicon wafer shipments, the second half of this year is poised to see a sequential increase. However, the overall annual shipment is likely to decrease by 3%. Nevertheless, a recovery is anticipated in 2025.
Conclusion
The SEMI forecast underscores the positive trajectory of the global semiconductor industry, which has been a cornerstone of technological advancement and economic growth. The surge in AI demand and the复苏 of the storage market are significant drivers of this growth. As the industry continues to evolve, the forecasted 20% annual revenue growth over the next two years could have profound implications for various sectors, including technology, automotive, and communications.
SEMI’s insights also highlight the importance of maintaining a balanced approach to market analysis, considering both the current trends and future projections. The industry’s resilience and adaptability will be crucial in navigating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
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