海南August Sees Empty Typhoon Period; More Tropical Cyclones Expected in September to November
Hainan Province experienced an unusual climatic event in August, with no tropical cyclones affecting the region, marking what has been termed an empty typhoon month. According to the Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, this extreme weather phenomenon could have significant implications for the province’s climate in the coming months.
An Unprecedented Climate Anomaly
On September 3, the Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory reported that August 2023 passed without any tropical cyclones impacting the province. This is a rare occurrence, with only eight such empty typhoon months recorded since 1951, all occurring after 1970. The average number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan in August is 1.3.
The absence of tropical cyclones in August is attributed to the La Niña conditions in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which generally favor the formation of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea and the northwestern Pacific. However, a stronger-than-usual subtropical high-pressure system over the South China Sea and an abnormal anticyclonic circulation at lower levels suppressed convective activity in the entire troposphere. As a result, tropical cyclones formed further north and east than usual, primarily affecting Japan, South Korea, and surrounding waters.
Impacts of the Empty Typhoon Month
The empty typhoon month in August had notable impacts on Hainan’s weather patterns. The average rainfall on Hainan Island was 53.2% less than the annual average, while the average temperature was 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than usual. The combination of high temperatures and low rainfall led to mild to severe meteorological droughts in some parts of the province.
Forecast for Upcoming Months
The Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory has provided a forecast for the period from September 1 to November 15, predicting that the province will be affected by five tropical cyclones, which is higher than the average. Of these, three to four will impact Hainan Island, with one to two making landfall. The average intensity of these tropical cyclones is expected to be stronger than usual, with the potential for individual strong typhoons to affect the region. The expected tropical cyclone impact is stronger than the average year.
The forecast also indicates that the total rainfall during this period will be higher than average, with each month expected to see more rainfall than usual. This could lead to increased flooding and other weather-related challenges for the province.
Preparations and Precautions
Given the forecasts, authorities in Hainan are likely to step up preparations for potential tropical cyclones. This includes enhancing disaster response plans, ensuring the readiness of emergency services, and providing public warnings and advisories to residents and tourists.
The empty typhoon month of August serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictability of weather patterns and the importance of robust meteorological monitoring and forecasting. As Hainan braces for a potentially active tropical cyclone season, the province’s ability to respond effectively to these natural disasters will be crucial in minimizing their impact on human life and property.
Conclusion
The absence of tropical cyclones in August in Hainan is a rare and unusual event that has significant implications for the province’s weather in the coming months. With the forecast indicating a higher number of tropical cyclones and stronger intensity, the authorities and residents of Hainan must remain vigilant and prepared for the challenges ahead. The Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory’s timely and accurate forecasts will be essential in guiding these preparations and ensuring the safety and well-being of the province’s population.
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