中国大学生失业潮恐将持续15年，波及6000万毕业生？

上周国家统计局称，就业形势总体稳定，5月份城镇调查失业率同比下降了0.2个百分点。《2024大学生就业力调研报告》显示，今年应届大学生未就业率比去年同期增加了2.1个百分点。为什么统计机构的失业率减少了，独立劳动力中介机构调查的大学生未就业率却增加了？

一、上周国家统计局称：就业形势总体稳定，5月份城镇调查失业率同比下降了0.2个百分点。

自从2023年7月份开始停止发布包括应届大学生的城镇青年调查失业率数据后，全国各类别的失业率数据很快得以修复。上周国家统计局在发布5月份的经济数据时报告说，1-5月份，全国的城镇调查失业率平均值为5.1%，比上年同期下降0.3个百分点。其中5月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.0%，与上月持平，但比上年同月下降0.2个百分点。

这是一个非常好的就业数据，这意味着劳动力市场比较火热，市场提供的就业岗位明显增加，并且工资有所增长吸引了更多人选择就业。两天后，国家统计局发布了5月份分年龄组失业率数据。5月份，全国城镇不包含在校生的16—24岁劳动力失业率为14.2%，比上个月大幅度下降了0.5个百分点。不包含在校生的25—29岁劳动力失业率为6.6%，不包含在校生的30—59岁劳动力失业率为4.0%。

2023年5月份，全国城镇包含在校生的16—24岁劳动力失业率为20.8%，比去年4月大幅度增加了0.4个百分点。这个数据意味着学生就业率和失业率，对16—24岁劳动力失业率有非常显著的影响，进而对全国城镇失业率也存在一定的影响。

二、《2024大学生就业力调研报告》显示，今年应届大学生未就业率比去年同期增加了2.1个百分点。

6月6日，智联招聘公布的《2024大学生就业力调研报告》显示，今年高校毕业生单位就业去向从去年的57.6%下降到55.5%，未就业去向则从42.4%增加到44.5%，增加了2.1个百分点。
其中，普通本科院校的硕博毕业生就业率仅为33.2%，较去年大幅度下降17个百分点，本科毕业生就业率仅为43.9%。offer获得率最高的双一流院校毕业生，就业率也只有57%
智联招聘的这一组数据意味着，大学生毕业后，找工作越来越难。之所以难，当然是因为经济增长乏力，复苏不及预期，企业就业岗位收缩，劳动力市场供过于求。
从2015年到2023年，全国大学毕业生，从749万增加到1158万。未来15年，骑牛研究所预估，每年大学生毕业生人数将持续维持在1100万以上。
而全社会能提供的能缴纳公积金的正经可靠的就业岗位，近2年增加规模快速下滑。2018年提供699万个，2021年提供1108万个，到2023年仅能提供475万个。
新增岗位减少，但毕业生人数增加，找不到可靠岗位的大学生人数开始存量累积。随着经济增长速度持续放缓，从2022年到2040年，就业注定困难。这一轮大学生失业潮，恐将持续15年以上，有可能将累积6000万失业大学生。

三、为什么统计机构的失业率减少了，独立劳动力中介机构调查的大学生未就业率却增加了？

不同来源渠道的失业率、就业率数据不一致很正常，毕竟调查范围、调查方法存在差异。但出现趋势性背离，则应该引起警惕，探明原因。以甄别出符合客观事实的失业率变化趋势。
三郎通过观察国家统计局青年失业率统计范围的调整，2019年与2023年调整前后月份的季节性失业率的对比，认为今年失业率同比下降，主要是因为今年和去年的失业率统计范围不同所致。
第一、众所周知，去年7月份开始，国家统计局宣布暂停发布包含学生的青年失业率。直到12月份才开始发布不包含学生的青年失业率。
第二、由于青年失业率是城镇调查失业率中的一个分组失业率，即16岁-24岁的城镇调查失业率。如果2023年12月份开始发布的这个分组的失业率不包含学生了，按统计学逻辑推理，整个城镇调查失业率，必然也不包括学生在内。
第三、2023年7月-11月未公布16岁-24岁的城镇调查失业率，国家统计局在公布这几个月的城镇失业率时，也未说明是否包括学生在内。
第四，国家统计局从2023年公布的不包含学生的城镇调查失业率开始，都会谈及同比增加或减少几个百分点。由此，可以推算出其引用的去年同期的失业率，与去年同期公布的失业率完全一致，这就意味着国家统计局并未按2023年12月份不包括学生的口径，重新调整此前的调查失业率。
第五，综上所述，实际上2023年12月份以后的城镇调查失业率和16岁-24岁的城镇调查失业率一样，因为不含学生，所以至少与2023年6月份之前的这两种失业率，口径不同，并不可比的。因为此前的失业率包含了学生。

第六、从2019年和2023年各月城镇调查失业率的季节性变化趋势看，2023年1-6月份的城镇调查失业率比

疫情前的2019年同期要高0.2个百分点左右。但9-12月，反而平均低了0.1个百分点左右。从季节性规律这一角度分析，这正负0.3个百分点的差异，可能是2023年后几个月的失业率口径，从此前的包含学生，调整为不包含学生，所带来的对城镇调查失业率的影响程度。
由此看，如果将去年5月份的失业率扣除因包含了学生所导致的0.3个百分点差异之后，今年5月份的城镇调查失业率，实际上应该比同期增加了0.1个百分点。

四、最近两年采购经理人指数中的就业人员指数的变化，也可以从侧面验证，今年的失业率并不会低于去年同期。

今年以来，由于需求持续低迷，消费跟不上供给，经济复苏不及预期，我国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）和非制造业PMI中的就业人员指数比去年同期均明显恶化，其中非制造业恶化得更为严重。
1-5月，制造业PMI中的就业人员指数平均为47.9%，同比减少了1.1个百分点。其中5月份减少了0.3个百分点；非制造业PMI中的就业人员指数平均为46.8%，同比减少了1.8个百分点。其中5月份减少了2.2个百分点。

为便于与失业率对比，我们按制造业和非制造业3：7的权重计算出加权平均的就业指数，通过观察我们能够发现，从2月份开始，PMI中的就业人员指数便比同期明显下降。1-5月份加权平均的就业人员指数为47.1%，同比减少了1.6个百分点。其中5月份为46.8%，同比减少了1.6个百分点。
就业人员指数减少，就意味着企业提供的劳动岗位减少，其反面就是失业率增加。
PMI中的就业人员指数减少，意味着失业率增加。这个数据也从侧面验证了今年以来的失业率下降，其实是今年与去年失业率统计口径不一致所致。其逻辑在于，由于今年的失业率统计剔除了失业率较高的学生，从而技术性降低了城镇调查失业率和16岁-24岁的城镇调查失业率。

五、计算青年失业率时不再包括学生，是我国失业率统计的中国特色，也是我国统计工作的创新。

自2023年12月重新发布不包括学生的青年失业率之后，国家统计局没有提供新计算方法的完整细节，也没有将其与旧方法进行对比。但将合计的城镇调查失业率与旧方法的数据进行了对比。
在2023年6月份停止公布旧口径青年失业率之前，国家统计局曾在6月份表示，16至24岁年龄段的人口总数约为9600万，但只有3300万人在工作或找工作，剩下约6300万人不在劳动力定义范围内。
如何衡量失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的统计标准，是由总部设在瑞士日内瓦的联合国机构—-国际劳工组织统一制定的。去年7月份，该机构的一名发言人在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，将学生排除在失业衡量标准之外，与该组织的标准不符，但她也表示，该组织还没有足够的信息来全面评估相关变化对中国劳动力市场数据的影响。
三郎认为，当时国家统计局的这一决定与改变，虽然与国际劳工组织统一制定的失业率调查标准有出入，但我们无需大惊小怪，了解这一差别，并将其视为我国失业率统计的中国特色，当然也可以视为我国统计工作的创新。
下一步，央行可能会改革流通中货币M0、MI、M2的统计口径，央行到时候会不会同步提供新口径的基期数据，不太清楚。但了解口径的不同，在运用数据时注意口径不一致所带来的差异，应该是所有经济研究人员必须注意的基本功。
【作者：徐三郎】

https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240629A00E3D00

Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics said that the employment situation was generally stable, and the urban survey unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year in May. The “2024 College Student Employment Survey Report” shows that the unemployment rate of fresh college graduates this year has increased by 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Why has the unemployment rate of statistical agencies decreased, but the unemployment rate of college students surveyed by independent labor intermediaries has increased?

1. Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics said: The employment situation is generally stable, and the urban survey unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year in May.

Since the release of urban youth survey unemployment rate data including fresh college graduates in July 2023, the unemployment rate data of various categories across the country have been quickly repaired. Last week, when the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for May, it reported that from January to May, the average urban survey unemployment rate across the country was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, in May, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, the same as the previous month, but a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same month last year.

This is a very good employment data, which means that the labor market is hot, the number of jobs provided by the market has increased significantly, and the increase in wages has attracted more people to choose employment. Two days later, the National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for age groups in May. In May, the unemployment rate of 16-24-year-old labor force in urban areas nationwide, excluding students, was 14.2%, a significant decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The unemployment rate of 25-29-year-old labor force excluding students was 6.6%, and the unemployment rate of 30-59-year-old labor force excluding students was 4.0%.

In May 2023, the unemployment rate of 16-24-year-old labor force in urban areas nationwide, including students, was 20.8%, a significant increase of 0.4 percentage points from April last year. This data means that the employment rate and unemployment rate of students have a very significant impact on the unemployment rate of 16-24-year-old labor force, and thus have a certain impact on the national urban unemployment rate.

2. The “2024 College Student Employment Survey Report” shows that the unemployment rate of fresh college graduates this year has increased by 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

On June 6, the “2024 College Student Employment Survey Report” released by Zhilian Recruitment showed that this year’s employment destinations for college graduates dropped from 57.6% last year to 55.5%, while the unemployed destinations increased from 42.4% to 44.5%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points.
Among them, the employment rate of master and doctoral graduates from ordinary undergraduate colleges was only 33.2%, a sharp drop of 17 percentage points from last year, and the employment rate of undergraduate graduates was only 43.9%. The employment rate of graduates from double first-class colleges with the highest offer acquisition rate was only 57%
This set of data from Zhilian Recruitment means that it is becoming increasingly difficult for college graduates to find jobs after graduation. The reason for this difficulty is, of course, the weak economic growth, the recovery is less than expected, the contraction of corporate jobs, and the oversupply of the labor market.
From 2015 to 2023, the number of college graduates nationwide increased from 7.49 million to 11.58 million. In the next 15 years, the Qiniu Research Institute estimates that the number of college graduates will continue to remain above 11 million each year.
However, the number of regular and reliable jobs that can pay provident funds that the whole society can provide has increased rapidly in the past two years. 6.99 million jobs were provided in 2018, 11.08 million jobs were provided in 2021, and only 4.75 million jobs could be provided by 2023.
The number of new jobs has decreased, but the number of graduates has increased, and the number of college students who cannot find reliable jobs has begun to accumulate. As the economic growth rate continues to slow, employment is doomed to be difficult from 2022 to 2040. This round of unemployment among college students is likely to last for more than 15 years, and it is possible that 60 million unemployed college students will accumulate.

3. Why has the unemployment rate of statistical agencies decreased, while the unemployment rate of college students surveyed by independent labor intermediaries has increased?

It is normal for the unemployment rate and employment rate data from different sources to be inconsistent. After all, there are differences in the scope and methods of the survey. However, if there is a trend deviation, it should be vigilant and the cause should be found out. In order to identify the trend of unemployment rate changes that conform to objective facts.
By observing the adjustment of the statistical scope of the youth unemployment rate of the National Bureau of Statistics and comparing the seasonal unemployment rates in the months before and after the adjustment in 2019 and 2023, Saburo believes that the year-on-year decline in unemployment rate this year is mainly due to the different statistical scope of unemployment rate this year and last year.
First, as we all know, starting from July last year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the suspension of the release of the youth unemployment rate including students. It was not until December that the youth unemployment rate excluding students was released.
Second, since the youth unemployment rate is a group unemployment rate in the urban survey unemployment rate, that is, the urban survey unemployment rate of 16-24 years old. If the unemployment rate of this group released from December 2023 does not include students, according to statistical logic, the entire urban survey unemployment rate must not include students.
Third, the urban survey unemployment rate for 16-24 years old was not announced from July to November 2023, and the National Bureau of Statistics did not specify whether students were included when announcing the urban unemployment rate in these months.
Fourth, the National Bureau of Statistics will talk about the year-on-year increase or decrease of several percentage points starting from the urban survey unemployment rate excluding students announced in 2023. From this, it can be inferred that the unemployment rate cited in the same period last year is exactly the same as the unemployment rate announced in the same period last year, which means that the National Bureau of Statistics did not readjust the previous survey unemployment rate according to the caliber of December 2023 excluding students.
Fifth, in summary, in fact, the urban survey unemployment rate after December 2023 is the same as the urban survey unemployment rate for people aged 16-24. Because it does not include students, at least the two unemployment rates before June 2023 are different in caliber and are not comparable. Because the previous unemployment rate includes students.
Sixth, judging from the seasonal change trend of the urban survey unemployment rate in each month of 2019 and 2023, the urban survey unemployment rate from January to June 2023 is about 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019 before the epidemic. But from September to December, it was about 0.1 percentage points lower on average. From the perspective of seasonality, this difference of plus or minus 0.3 percentage points may be the impact of the unemployment rate in the last few months of 2023, which has been adjusted from including students to excluding students.
From this point of view, if the unemployment rate in May last year is deducted from the difference of 0.3 percentage points due to the inclusion of students, the urban survey unemployment rate in May this year should actually increase by 0.1 percentage points compared with the same period.

4. The changes in the employment index in the purchasing managers’ index in the past two years can also verify from the side that this year’s unemployment rate will not be lower than the same period last year.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the continued sluggish demand, consumption cannot keep up with supply, and the economic recovery is less than expected, the employment index in my country’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and non-manufacturing PMI has deteriorated significantly compared with the same period last year, among which the non-manufacturing industry has deteriorated more seriously.
From January to May, the employment index in the manufacturing PMI averaged 47.9%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, it decreased by 0.3 percentage points in May; the employment index in the non-manufacturing PMI averaged 46.8%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, it decreased by 2.2 percentage points in May.

In order to facilitate comparison with the unemployment rate, we calculated the weighted average employment index according to the weight of 3:7 between manufacturing and non-manufacturing. Through observation, we can find that since February, the employment index in PMI has dropped significantly compared with the same period. The weighted average employment index from January to May was 47.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, it was 46.8% in May, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year.
The decrease in the employment index means that the number of jobs provided by enterprises has decreased, and the opposite is the increase in unemployment rate.
The decrease in the employment index in PMI means an increase in unemployment rate. This data also verifies from the side that the decline in unemployment rate since this year is actually due to the inconsistency between the statistical caliber of unemployment rate this year and last year. The logic is that since this year’s unemployment rate statistics exclude students with higher unemployment rates, the urban survey unemployment rate and the urban survey unemployment rate of 16-24 years old are technically reduced.

5. No longer including students when calculating the youth unemployment rate is a Chinese feature of my country’s unemployment rate statistics and an innovation in my country’s statistical work.

Since re-releasing the youth unemployment rate excluding students in December 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics has not provided full details of the new calculation method or compared it with the old method. But the aggregate urban survey unemployment rate was compared with the data of the old method.
Before stopping publishing the old caliber youth unemployment rate in June 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said in June that the total population of the 16-24 age group was about 96 million, but only 33 million were working or looking for work, leaving about 63 million people outside the definition of the labor force.
The statistical standards for how to measure unemployment and other labor market indicators are uniformly formulated by the International Labor Organization, a United Nations agency headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in July last year, a spokesperson for the agency said that excluding students from the unemployment measurement standard was inconsistent with the organization’s standards, but she also said that the organization did not have enough information to fully assess the impact of the relevant changes on China’s labor market data.
Sanlang believes that although the decision and change made by the National Bureau of Statistics at that time was inconsistent with the unemployment rate survey standards uniformly formulated by the International Labor Organization, we do not need to make a fuss. We should understand this difference and regard it as a Chinese characteristic of my country’s unemployment rate statistics, and of course it can also be regarded as an innovation in my country’s statistical work.
Next, the central bank may reform the statistical caliber of currency in circulation M0, MI, and M2. It is not clear whether the central bank will provide base period data of the new caliber at the same time. But understanding the difference in caliber and paying attention to the differences caused by inconsistent caliber when using data should be the basic skills that all economic researchers must pay attention to.
[Author: Xu Sanlang]

一、中国大学生就业现状

近年来，中国高校毕业生规模持续增长，就业形势呈现出一定的复杂性和挑战性。根据教育部统计数据，2023年全国高校毕业生规模达到1158万人，创历史新高。就业市场对专业技能和综合素质的要求日益提高，部分毕业生面临就业难、就业压力大等问题。

就业难的原因

1. 供需失衡：部分行业和岗位的市场需求与毕业生的供给存在结构性失衡，导致某些领域供过于求，而某些领域人才短缺。
2. 专业对口难：部分毕业生所学专业与市场需求不匹配，增加了就业难度。
3. 技能不匹配：随着经济结构的调整和产业升级，市场对高技能人才的需求增加，而部分毕业生缺乏必要的实践经验和专业技能。

二、长期趋势预测

1. 技术驱动的就业变革

随着人工智能、大数据、云计算等新兴技术的快速发展，相关领域的就业机会增多，同时也对劳动力的技能提出了更高要求。

2. 绿色经济与可持续发展

绿色经济、循环经济等可持续发展理念日益受到重视，相关领域如环保、新能源、绿色建筑等将成为未来就业增长点。

3. 服务行业与个性化需求

随着消费者需求的多样化和个性化，服务业尤其是文化创意、健康医疗、教育培训等行业将持续发展，提供更多就业机会。

三、政策应对与建议

1. 强化职业指导与就业服务

加强高校与企业、政府部门的合作，开展职业指导教育，提供就业信息咨询、职业规划等服务，帮助毕业生更好地了解就业市场，提高就业竞争力。

2. 优化高等教育结构与质量

根据市场需求调整学科专业设置，加强实践教学和创新创业教育，提高毕业生的专业技能和综合素质。

3. 加大就业支持政策力度

实施就业补贴、创业扶持、税收优惠等政策，鼓励企业吸纳高校毕业生，特别是鼓励小微企业和科技型企业提供就业岗位。

4. 提升终身学习能力

鼓励大学生树立终身学习理念，通过在线教育、职业培训等方式不断提升自我，适应不断变化的就业市场。

四、结论

面对中国大学生就业的长期趋势和挑战，政府、高校、企业和社会各界需共同努力，通过优化教育结构、加强就业服务、提供就业支持等措施，构建更加灵活、包容、可持续的就业生态，为大学生就业创造更加有利的环境。同时，大学生自身也需不断提升自我，适应市场需求，以实现更高质量的就业。

1. Employment Status of Chinese College Students

In recent years, the number of college graduates in China has continued to grow, and the employment situation has shown certain complexity and challenges. According to statistics from the Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates nationwide will reach 11.58 million in 2023, a record high. The employment market has increasingly higher requirements for professional skills and comprehensive qualities, and some graduates face problems such as difficulty in finding employment and high employment pressure.

Reasons for employment difficulties

Imbalance between supply and demand: There is a structural imbalance between the market demand for some industries and positions and the supply of graduates, resulting in oversupply in some areas and a shortage of talents in some areas.

Difficulty in matching majors: The majors studied by some graduates do not match market demand, which increases the difficulty of finding employment.

Mismatched skills: With the adjustment of economic structure and industrial upgrading, the market demand for highly skilled talents has increased, while some graduates lack the necessary practical experience and professional skills.

2. Long-term trend forecast
3. Technology-driven employment changes

With the rapid development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing, employment opportunities in related fields have increased, and higher requirements have also been placed on the skills of the workforce.

2. Green economy and sustainable development

Green economy, circular economy and other sustainable development concepts are increasingly valued, and related fields such as environmental protection, new energy, green buildings, etc. will become future employment growth points.

3. Service industry and personalized needs

With the diversification and personalization of consumer demand, the service industry, especially cultural creativity, health care, education and training, will continue to develop and provide more employment opportunities.

III. Policy response and suggestions

1. Strengthen career guidance and employment services

Strengthen the cooperation between colleges and universities, enterprises and government departments, carry out career guidance education, provide employment information consultation, career planning and other services, help graduates better understand the employment market and improve employment competitiveness.

2. Optimize the structure and quality of higher education

Adjust the discipline and major settings according to market demand, strengthen practical teaching and innovation and entrepreneurship education, and improve the professional skills and comprehensive quality of graduates.

3. Strengthen employment support policies

Implement policies such as employment subsidies, entrepreneurship support, and tax incentives to encourage enterprises to absorb college graduates, especially small and micro enterprises and technology-based enterprises to provide jobs.

4. Improve lifelong learning ability

Encourage college students to establish a lifelong learning concept, continuously improve themselves through online education, vocational training, etc., and adapt to the ever-changing job market.

IV. Conclusion

Facing the long-term trends and challenges of Chinese college students’ employment, the government, universities, enterprises and all sectors of society need to work together to build a more flexible, inclusive and sustainable employment ecology through measures such as optimizing the education structure, strengthening employment services and providing employment support, so as to create a better employment environment for college students.

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