在全球经济不确定性增加、地缘政治风险频发的背景下，资产配置成为了投资者关注的焦点。中金公司资产管理部董事总经理崔海亮在中新财经圆桌会上指出，投资者应考虑分散投资策略，力求在平滑波动的同时，获取大多数资产的长期收益。
崔海亮强调，在进行投资决策时，投资者不仅要关注资产本身的风险收益特征，还需比较和关注不同资产之间的相关性。黄金、股票、债券、地产等低相关性资产，通过科学配置，能够适应多种经济环境。当前，国内经济总体呈现稳中向好的趋势，物价稳定，流动性合理，经济结构优化，但总需求仍较弱，经济处于弱复苏阶段。与此同时，海外发达国家虽增长和通胀有韧性，但增长减速不可避免，未来有较高概率进入降息周期。
崔海亮认为，当前国内处于低利率环境，有利于风险资产上涨。在过去的半年里，债券市场经历了信用债和长端国债的上涨。对于股票市场，其上涨需要等待经济增长确定性提升、市场信心增强以及企业盈利改善的时机。
对于“黄金热”的现象，崔海亮指出，从长期看，黄金价格与通胀紧密相关。黄金作为全球定价的商品，有助于投资者应对通胀风险。然而，黄金价格受多空因素交织影响，未来走势具有不确定性。部分发达国家央行进入降息周期，对黄金构成利好，但地缘政治冲突和通胀预期的消退则可能对黄金价格带来不利影响。
在传统资产与新兴资产的配置比例调整方面，崔海亮建议，应分析每种资产的风险收益特征，并关注资产间的相关性，以此决定配置比例。例如，量化基金的驱动因素是市场定价效率，随着监管趋严，市场定价效率提升，错误定价的机会减少。基于对经济前景的判断，投资者可关注黄金、大宗商品等资产，以应对滞胀风险；若预期经济企稳改善，REITs等资产可能更受青睐；若认为美国实现软着陆，港股和美债可能成为关注焦点。
综上所述，崔海亮的建议为投资者在当前复杂多变的市场环境下提供了宝贵的资产配置策略，强调了分散投资、关注资产相关性的重要性，以及根据经济前景调整资产配置比例的必要性。
英语如下：
News Title: “Cui Hailei: Scientific Allocation of Low Correlation Assets to Navigate Fluctuating Economic Conditions”
Keywords: Asset Allocation, Economic Environment, Investment Decisions
Content: In the face of increased global economic uncertainty and frequent geopolitical risks, asset allocation has become a focal point for investors. At a roundtable discussion hosted by China News Agency and Xinhua, Cui Hailei, Director General of the Asset Management Department at Zhongjin Securities, emphasized the importance of diversification in investment strategies. He advocated for smoothing out volatility while seeking long-term returns from most assets.
Cui Hailei stressed that when making investment decisions, investors should not only consider the risk-return profile of individual assets but also the correlation between different assets. Assets with low correlation, such as gold, stocks, bonds, and real estate, can adapt to various economic environments when allocated scientifically. Currently, the overall economic situation in China shows a trend of stability and improvement, with stable prices, reasonable liquidity, and optimized economic structure. However, domestic demand remains weak, and the economy is in a stage of weak recovery. Meanwhile, although developed countries show resilience in growth and inflation, growth deceleration is inevitable, and there is a high probability of entering a period of interest rate cuts in the future.
Cui Hailei noted that the current low-interest rate environment in China is favorable for the rise of risk assets. Over the past six months, the bond market has seen increases in credit bonds and long-term government bonds. For the stock market, growth is expected when economic certainty increases, market confidence strengthens, and corporate profits improve.
Regarding the “gold rush” phenomenon, Cui Hailei pointed out that from a long-term perspective, gold prices are closely related to inflation. Gold, as a globally priced commodity, helps investors hedge against inflation risks. However, the future走势 of gold prices is uncertain due to the intertwining of bullish and bearish factors. As central banks in some developed countries enter a period of rate cuts, which is beneficial to gold, but the decline in geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations could negatively impact gold prices.
In terms of adjusting the allocation between traditional and new assets, Cui Hailei suggested analyzing the risk-return characteristics of each asset and the correlation between assets to determine the allocation ratio. For instance, the driving force behind quantitative funds is market pricing efficiency, and as regulations tighten, this efficiency improves, reducing opportunities for mispricing. Based on judgments about the economic outlook, investors can focus on assets like gold, commodities, to hedge against stagflation risks; if expecting economic stabilization and improvement, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) might be more appealing; and if anticipating a soft landing in the US, Hong Kong stocks and US Treasuries could be of interest.
In conclusion, Cui Hailei’s advice provides valuable asset allocation strategies for investors in the complex and volatile market conditions, highlighting the importance of diversification, attention to asset correlations, and the necessity of adjusting asset allocation based on economic prospects.
【来源】http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2024/07-23/10256119.shtml
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