特斯拉和SpaceX的创始人埃隆·马斯克在X社交媒体上发布了一条引人深思的预测，他认为人工智能（AI）的智能水平将在明年超越任何一个个体人类，并在2029年将超过全人类的总和。马斯克的这番言论是在回应未来学家Ray Kurzweil的一项预测之后发表的，Kurzweil曾预测2029年将是AI达到人类智能水平的节点。
马斯克在推文中指出：“2023年，AI可能会比任何人类个体都聪明，而到了2029年，它可能比地球上所有人加起来还要聪明。”他的这一观点似乎比Kurzweil的预测更为激进，Kurzweil虽然也认为2029年AI将达到人类水平的智能，但他认为这个时间点可能被低估了，实际的转折点可能提前至未来一两年。
马斯克和Kurzweil的预测再次引发了公众对人工智能发展的关注和讨论。随着AI技术的飞速进步，如何平衡科技发展与人类福祉，以及如何在AI超越人类智慧时确保其安全可控，已成为全球科技界和政策制定者亟待解决的重要议题。此次马斯克的言论无疑再次将这一话题推向了风口浪尖，提醒人们需要对AI的发展保持警惕，并提前做好相应的伦理和法规准备。
英语如下：
News Title: “Musk Warns: AI to Surpass Individual Humans in 2023, Match Collective Human Intelligence by 2029”
Keywords: Musk’s prediction, Artificial Intelligence, 2029
News Content: Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, made a thought-provoking prediction on the social media platform X, suggesting that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will surpass the intelligence of any single individual next year and outstrip the combined intelligence of all humans by 2029. Musk’s comments came in response to futurist Ray Kurzweil’s prediction that 2029 would be the year when AI reaches human-level intelligence.
In his tweet, Musk stated, “In 2023, AI may be smarter than any one human. By 2029, it could be smarter than all humans on Earth combined.” Musk’s stance appears more radical than Kurzweil’s, who also forecasts AI reaching human-level intelligence in 2029 but suggests that this milestone might be underestimated and could actually occur a year or two earlier.
The predictions of Musk and Kurzweil have reignited public discourse on AI development. With the rapid progress of AI technology, the challenge of balancing technological advancement with human well-being, and ensuring AI’s safety and controllability when it surpasses human intelligence, has become a critical issue for the global tech community and policymakers. Musk’s remarks have once again brought this topic to the forefront, underscoring the need for vigilance in AI development and the preparation of corresponding ethical and regulatory frameworks.
【来源】https://www.yicai.com/news/102025297.html
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