在历经23年的生成式人工智能（AI）快速发展后，业界对于2024年AI的新突破充满期待。然而，近日一份由新智元发布的全网AI专家预测报告显示，尽管备受瞩目的GPT-5可能即将发布，但大型语言模型（LLM）在本质上仍存在局限性，2024年实现基本的通用人工智能（AGI）的可能性被认为微乎其微。
据预测，尽管GPT-5在自然语言处理领域可能会带来显著的性能提升，但在理解和创造复杂情境、理解人类情感以及进行独立决策等方面，其能力仍受到现有技术框架的制约。AI领域的权威专家指出，AGI的实现需要跨越多学科的综合突破，包括但不限于认知科学、神经科学以及伦理学等，而这些领域的进展速度并不匹配。
这份报告的发布引发了业界的深思，人们开始重新评估对AI发展的乐观预期。尽管如此，专家们并未完全否定AI的进步，他们强调在特定领域，如医疗诊断、自动驾驶和智能制造等，AI技术将会持续深化并带来显著的社会经济效益。
2024年，AI领域的重点可能会转向更实用、更具针对性的解决方案，而非追求全面的AGI。这一预测为AI研究和产业的发展指明了方向，即在现有技术基础上进行精细化和专业化，以更好地服务于人类社会。
随着技术的不断迭代，AI研究者和开发者将继续在有限的LLM能力与AGI的理想之间寻找平衡，而2024年，或许将是这一探索过程中至关重要的一年。
英语如下：
Title: “24-Year AGI Dream Dashed? Expert Predictions: GPT-5 Unlikely to Breakthrough Limitations, AI Pundits Converge”
Keywords: GPT-5 limitations, 24 years without AGI, AI forecasts summary
Content:
After 23 years of rapid development in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), the industry eagerly awaited a new breakthrough in 2024. However, a recent comprehensive AI experts’ prediction report, issued by New Wisdom Era, suggests that while the much-anticipated GPT-5 might be on the horizon, large language models (LLMs) still inherently have limitations, making the realization of basic Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in 2024 highly unlikely.
According to the forecast, although GPT-5 is expected to deliver significant performance enhancements in natural language processing, it is believed to fall short in understanding and creating complex contexts, grasping human emotions, and making independent decisions, due to constraints imposed by current technological frameworks. Esteemed AI experts emphasize that achieving AGI requires interdisciplinary breakthroughs, including but not limited to cognitive science, neuroscience, and ethics, which are not currently progressing at the same pace.
The report’s release has prompted introspection within the industry, prompting a reevaluation of overly optimistic AI expectations. Nonetheless, experts do not entirely dismiss AI advancements, highlighting that the technology will continue to deepen and deliver substantial socioeconomic benefits in specialized domains such as medical diagnosis, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing.
In 2024, the focus in the AI field might shift towards more practical and targeted solutions rather than pursuing comprehensive AGI. This prediction sets a course for AI research and industry development, emphasizing refinement and specialization on existing technologies to better serve human society.
As technology continues to evolve, AI researchers and developers will navigate the balance between the limited capabilities of LLMs and the ideal of AGI. 2024 is poised to be a critical year in this ongoing exploration.
【来源】https://www.ithome.com/0/742/812.htm
Views: 1