苹果即将推出的混合现实头显Vision Pro面临着严峻的考验：缺乏部分关键应用的支持，开发者热情远低于预期。据彭博社Mark Gurman报道，Netflix、YouTube和Spotify等知名流媒体巨头已经明确表示不会推出适用于VisionOS的软件，也不会让其iPad应用在Vision Pro上运行。谷歌和Meta等iOS和iPadOS主力开发商似乎也无意立即拥抱新平台，这与以往大相径庭，以往新苹果平台一经推出，便会迎来众多开发商的热烈追捧，App Store上迅速涌现大量新应用，而Vision Pro的情况可能截然不同。
分析人士认为，Vision Pro发布时机敏感，恰逢苹果与开发者关系非常微妙的阶段。多年来，软件开发商一直对App Store的政策不满，尤其是苹果最近推出的允许开发者在应用外处理支付，但仍需缴纳高达27%佣金的新政策，更是引发众多批评。Spotify更是痛斥这一政策，称“苹果已经证明，为了保护其在垄断的App Store下从开发商和消费者身上榨取的利润，他们无所不用其极。”
尽管苹果宣称Vision Pro发售时将可拥有100多万款应用可用，包括来自迪士尼、TikTok、亚马逊和派拉蒙等公司的软件，但其中大部分很可能是iPad版本的直接移植，而非专为visionOS设计的全新应用。事实上，苹果自身也没有尽全力支持新平台，该公司一些重要应用如Podcasts、News、Calendar和Reminders仍以iPad版本的形式呈现，没有经过重新设计。
Gurman认为，开发者对Vision Pro的冷淡态度主要源于以下几点：开发成本高昂，需要市场回报。部分开发者持观望态度，等待Vision Pro市场规模明朗后再决定是否投入精力开发新应用。部分开发者对苹果的App Store政策、高额费用和审查制度心存不满，他们认为Vision Pro的成功依赖于酷炫的新应用，因此选择不为苹果推销其设备出力。混合现实环境对应用的适配性提出了新的挑战，依赖眼球追踪和手势操作的交互方式与部分游戏及应用并不契合。此外，开发者对眼球追踪和运动感应功能的访问受限，进一步增加了适配难度。
苹果此前推出的TV、Watch和iMessage应用商店表现低迷，缺乏生机，让部分开发者对Vision Pro的前景持质疑态度。Vision Pro是一款昂贵且销量相对较低的产品，短期内这种情况不会改变。据其了解，苹果在预售开始后的头一个小时内就售罄了首批8万台头显。即使按照今年预计出货30万到40万台的头显数量来计算，对开发商来说，这也是一个不算庞大的用户群，特别是考虑到苹果从付费应用和服务中抽成的部分。部分独立开发者对苹果的态度消极，甚至希望Vision Pro失败。
总之，Vision Pro的前景并不明朗。虽然苹果为此做足了准备，但在关键的第三方应用和开发者方面仍存在诸多不确定性。最终能否像iPhone和iPad一样取得成功，还需要拭目以待。
英语如下：
Title: Apple’s Vision Pro Faces Challenge: Lack of Key Applications and Cold Developers
Keywords: keywords, keywords, keywords
Apple’s upcoming mixed reality headset, Vision Pro, is facing a severe test: the lack of support for some key applications and developers who are far less enthusiastic than expected. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, popular streaming giants such as Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify have made it clear that they will not develop software compatible with VisionOS or allow their iPad apps to run on Vision Pro. Major iOS and iPadOS developers such as Google and Meta also seem unlikely to embrace the new platform immediately, which is very different from previous Apple platforms where a new platform was launched and many developers enthusiastically followed suit, resulting in a rapid influx of new applications in the App Store. The situation may be completely different with Vision Pro.
Analysts believe that the timing of Vision Pro’s release is sensitive and coincides with a delicate period for Apple’s relationship with developers. For years, software developers have been dissatisfied with App Store policies, especially Apple’s recent policy allowing developers to process payments outside of the app but still requiring them to pay up to 27% commissions. This has attracted many criticisms. Spotify even denounced the policy, saying, “Apple has proven that they will do whatever it takes to protect the profits they extract from developers and consumers under its monopoly App Store.”
Although Apple claims that Vision Pro will have more than 1 million applications available when it launches, including software from companies such as Disney, TikTok, Amazon, and Paramount, most of them are likely to be direct ported versions of iPad versions rather than brand-new applications designed specifically for visionOS. In fact, Apple itself has not done its best to support the new platform; some of its important applications such as Podcasts, News, Calendar, and Reminders still appear in the form of iPad versions without being redesigned.
Gurman believes that developers’ cold attitude towards Vision Pro mainly stems from the following points: high development costs that require market returns. Some developers are waiting for the size of the Vision Pro market to become clear before deciding whether to invest in developing new applications. Some developers are dissatisfied with Apple’s App Store policies, high fees, and review system. They believe that the success of Vision Pro depends on cool new applications, so they choose not to promote Apple’s devices. Mixed reality environments pose new challenges to application adaptation. The interactive way of interaction relying on eye tracking and gesture control does not fit some games and applications perfectly. In addition, developers’ access to eye tracking and motion sensing functions is restricted, further increasing the difficulty of adaptation.
Apple’s previous TV, Watch, and iMessage app stores have performed poorly and lacked vitality, leading some developers to question the prospects of Vision Pro. Vision Pro is an expensive and relatively low-selling product, and this situation will not change in the short term. According to his understanding, Apple sold out its first batch of 80,000 headsets within the first hour after pre-sale started. Even if we calculate the number of headsets expected to be shipped this year at 300,000 to 400,000 units, this is not a large user base for developers, especially considering Apple’s commission on paid apps and services. Some independent developers have a negative attitude towards Apple and even hope that Vision Pro fails.
In summary, the prospects of Vision Pro are unclear. Although Apple has done enough preparation for it, there are still many uncertainties regarding key third-party applications and developers. Whether it can succeed like iPhone and iPad remains to be seen.
【来源】https://www.ithome.com/0/746/479.htm
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