标题：艾伦人工智能研究院预测：2024年AI将进入多模态大模型时代
据艾伦人工智能研究院创始CEO奥伦·伊奇奥尼博士在接受每经网专访时表示，AI的发展速度超出预期，成本每18个月就下降一半。他预测，到2024年，AI将进入多模态大模型的进一步研发阶段，超越单纯的内容生成，向能够完成行动的AI智能体前进。
奥伦·伊奇奥尼博士强调，尽管AI的发展速度快于预期，但其发展并未脱离摩尔定律的影响。他表示，芯片时代的摩尔定律在AI时代仍然适用，即集成电路上可容纳的晶体管数量大约每两年就会翻倍。这意味着，随着技术的进步，AI的训练和推理成本可能每18个月就下降一半。
这一预测无疑为AI行业带来了新的希望和挑战。多模态大模型的研发和推广将使AI更加智能化，能够更好地理解和处理复杂的任务。同时，降低AI训练和推理的成本将进一步推动AI技术的普及和应用。
艾伦人工智能研究院作为全球领先的AI研究机构，一直致力于推动AI技术的发展和应用。奥伦·伊奇奥尼博士的预测无疑将为AI行业带来新的发展方向，也将为社会带来更多的可能性。
英语如下：
Title: “Allen AI Research predicts: AI will enter the era of multimodal large models by 2024, with costs potentially halved”
Keywords: AI cost, multimodal large models, Moore’s Law
Content:
Title: Allen AI Research Predicts: AI to Enter the Era of Multimodal Large Models by 2024, with Costs Possibly Halved
According to Dr. Oren Ichni, the founding CEO of Allen AI Research, in an interview with CE News, the development of AI has exceeded expectations, with costs falling by half every 18 months. He predicts that by 2024, AI will enter the stage of further research and development of multimodal large models, surpassing simple content generation and moving towards AI intelligent agents capable of taking actions.
Dr. Ichni emphasized that although the development of AI is faster than expected, it has not been divorced from the influence of Moore’s Law. He stated that the law of Moore’s Law in the chip era still applies to AI, meaning that the number of transistors that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit will almost double every two years. This means that as technology progresses, the training and reasoning costs of AI may fall by half every 18 months.
This prediction undoubtedly brings new hope and challenges to the AI industry. The research and promotion of multimodal large models will make AI more intelligent and better able to understand and process complex tasks. At the same time, reducing the cost of AI training and reasoning will further promote the popularization and application of AI technology.
Allen AI Research, as a leading global AI research institution, has been committed to promoting the development and application of AI technology. Dr. Ichni’s prediction will undoubtedly bring new directions to the AI industry and bring more possibilities to society.
【来源】https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2023-12-26/3181902.html
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