近日，美国对冲基金大佬、潘兴广场资本管理公司创始人兼 CEO 比尔·阿克曼（Bill Ackman）在 X（原推特）上发文警告称，“全球资产定价之锚”已经突破 4.5%，长期美债收益率或继续走高。他还表示，“就在不久前，上一代人还认为 5% 对于长期固收债券来说是一个很高的收益率，但如今的世界结构与那代人所经历的世界已经大不相同。”
根据阿克曼的警告，长期美债收益率的突破意味着什么？将对市场产生哪些影响？
首先，长期美债收益率的突破意味着投资者需要重新审视美债的投资价值。在过去，5% 的收益率被认为是相对较高的，但是现在，4.5% 的收益率已经接近于投资者期待的安全边际。因此，投资者需要考虑美债的吸引力是否足够，以使其在投资组合中占据重要地位。
其次，长期美债收益率的突破也意味着投资者需要关注全球资产定价之锚的变化。在过去，投资者将 5% 的收益率视为长期固收债券的安全边际，但现在，4.5% 的收益率已经接近于投资者期待的安全边际。因此，投资者需要关注全球资产定价之锚的变化，以更好地适应不断变化的市场环境。
总结起来，长期美债收益率的突破意味着投资者需要重新审视美债的投资价值，并关注全球资产定价之锚的变化。这些变化将产生深远的影响，需要投资者谨慎应对。
新闻翻译：
Title: US Treasury yields break through 4.5%, warning from Pimco’s Bill Ackman: long-term Treasury yields may continue to rise!
Keywords: US Treasury yields, Pimco, Bill Ackman, long-term Treasury yields
News content:
Recently, Bill Ackman, the founder and CEO of Pimco, a well-known hedge fund, warned on Twitter that \”the global asset pricing anchor has broken through 4.5%, and long-term Treasury yields may continue to rise.\” He also stated, \”Just a few years ago, people of the previous generation considered a 5% yield for long-term fixed income bonds to be a relatively high yield, but the world structure today is vastly different from what their generation experienced.\”
What does Ackman’s warning mean for the market? What impact will it have?
Firstly, Ackman’s warning that long-term Treasury yields have broken through 4.5% means that investors need to reevaluate the investment value of US Treasury bonds. In the past, a 5% yield was considered to be a relatively high yield for long-term fixed income bonds, but now, 4.5% is close to the safety margin that investors expect. Therefore, investors need to consider whether the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds is enough to make them an important part of their investment portfolio.
Secondly, Ackman’s warning also means that investors need to pay attention to changes in the global asset pricing anchor. In the past, investors considered a 5% yield to be the safety margin for long-term fixed income bonds, but now, 4.5% is close to the safety margin. Therefore, investors need to pay attention to changes in the global asset pricing anchor to better adapt to an ever-changing market environment.
In summary, Ackman’s warning means that investors need to reevaluate the investment value of US Treasury bonds and pay attention to changes in the global asset pricing anchor. These changes will have far-reaching implications and require investors to be cautious.
【来源】https://www.zhihu.com/question/623981120
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