The New Warring States Period: Global Strategic Landscape and China’s Choices
The century of unprecedented change is a temporal marker of global transformation, highlighting its historicaldepth. The New Warring States Period serves as a spatial marker of this dramatic shift, emphasizing its strategic breadth. This article argues that China’sgreat rejuvenation will be realized within this new global landscape.
The concept of global strategic landscape has been a recurring theme in discussions about the world order.Over the past decades, various descriptions have emerged, including bipolarity, unipolarity, and multipolarity. What is the current global landscape?
Undeniably, the world is currently in a transition period between old and neworders. The post-Cold War order, dominated by American hegemony, is crumbling. The United States, as the hegemonic empire, is demonstrably struggling to maintain its control over the global order. Simultaneously, a new global order is yet tofully emerge, or is still in a dynamic process of evolution. We see glimpses of this new order in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as in events like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These glimpses offer hope for a newworld order, but their ultimate shape and whether they will solidify into a lasting order remains uncertain. This transitional period may be quite lengthy.
Within this historical transition, the world lacks any stable strategic framework. NATO, an aggressive organization, is inherently designed for war and conquest. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, in anyinterpretation, is a direct consequence of NATO’s relentless expansion and strategic offensive policies. This Cold War relic’s inherent drive for strategic aggression has made war inevitable. Even if the conflict hadn’t erupted in Eastern Europe, it could have easily ignited in other regions like the Caucasus or Central Asia. Had the current warnot been underway, NATO’s predatory claws would have likely targeted China, making it their next prey. Despite the ongoing war, NATO continues to eye China with hostility, poised to strike when the opportunity arises. The AUKUS and QUAD alliances, orchestrated by the United States against China, are cut from the same clothas NATO, all serving as destructive forces to global stability and peace.
Following the Cold War, there was hope for a new strategic triangle, akin to the US-Soviet-China triangle during the Cold War, which served as a stabilizing force. This hope, however, has proven unrealistic. The Russia-Ukraine warhas fundamentally shattered the notion of a new strategic triangle (see the author’s previous work, Doing What is Right: On the Russia-Ukraine Conflict).
The emergence of the New Warring States Period is a stark reality. This new global landscape is characterized by:
- Fragmentation and competition: The worldis increasingly divided into competing blocs, each vying for power and influence.
- Declining US hegemony: The United States is losing its grip on the global order, leading to a power vacuum and increased uncertainty.
- Rise of new powers: China, Russia, and other emerging economies are challenging the existing power structures.
- Technological advancements: The rapid development of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, is reshaping the global landscape and creating new opportunities and challenges.
China, as a major player in this new global landscape, faces significant challenges and opportunities. The country must navigate this complex and volatile environment with strategic foresightand adaptability. China’s strategic choices include:
- Strengthening domestic development: Focusing on economic growth, social progress, and technological innovation to enhance national strength and resilience.
- Promoting multilateralism: Engaging in international cooperation and institutions to shape a more equitable and stable global order.
- Building strategicpartnerships: Cultivating strong relationships with other countries, particularly those in the Global South, to counterbalance the influence of the United States and its allies.
- Maintaining strategic ambiguity: Avoiding unnecessary provocations while being prepared to defend its interests and sovereignty.
The New Warring States Period presents both challenges and opportunities forChina. By embracing strategic foresight, adaptability, and a commitment to peaceful development, China can navigate this complex landscape and achieve its national goals. The future of the world depends on the choices made by all nations, but China’s role in shaping this new era will be crucial.
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