台湾中华经济研究院8月1日在台北公布，今年7月台湾制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）与非制造业采购经理人指数（NMI）分别下跌1.5%、1.7%至52.2%、57.3%，显示台湾经济扩张速度趋缓。中经院院长连贤明表示，厂商对未来前景转为审慎乐观，并开始重新评估相关变量。
PMI、NMI高于50%表示景气处于扩张期，低于50%则处于紧缩期。中经院当日公布的数据显示，7月PMI五项组成指标中，新增订单、生产与人力雇用呈现扩张，供货商交货时间上升，存货持续紧缩。六大产业中，化学暨生技医疗产业、食品暨纺织产业、电子暨光学产业回报PMI扩张；电力暨机械设备产业、交通工具产业、基础原物料产业回报PMI紧缩。
7月NMI虽然继续呈现扩张，但股市回跌、房市管制等影响指数下跌，商业活动、新增订单指数与未来展望指数皆呈现扩张趋缓走势。
连贤明分析指出，台湾各产业发展仍然存在不均衡的情况，厂商对未来前景展望已从“非常乐观”转为“审慎乐观”，并已开始重新评估相关变量。但是，预期景气不会突然出现大幅跌落的状况。
连贤明认为，整体而言，接下来要观察两大变数，一是美国总统大选，可能影响台湾的半导体产业及电子产业；二是美国联邦储备委员会降息的脚步，可能牵动其他地区对景气的评估。
中经院第三研究所副研究员陈馨蕙认为，台湾部分产业可能因地缘政治不确定性在风险评估上进行调整，如基础原物料PMI转为紧缩，电力暨机械设备产业PMI也只维持1个月的扩张之后转为紧缩。
综上所述，台湾经济虽然仍处于扩张期，但扩张速度有所放缓，厂商对未来的乐观态度有所调整，并对相关变量进行重新评估。市场预期经济不会出现大幅下滑，但需关注外部因素如美国总统大选和美国联邦储备委员会的货币政策变动。
英语如下：
News Title: Taiwan Manufacturing Expansion Slows as Firms Reevaluate Market Variables
Keywords: Decrease, Assessment, Prudence
News Content: On August 1, the Institute for Economics and Trade (IET) in Taiwan released data in Taipei showing that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in Taiwan fell by 1.5% in July to 52.2%, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI (NMI) dropped by 1.7% to 57.3%. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of economic expansion in Taiwan. Dr. Lian Xianming, the director of the IET, stated that manufacturers have shifted to a prudently optimistic outlook for the future and have begun reassessing relevant variables.
A PMI above 50% indicates that the economy is in an expansionary phase, while a PMI below 50% indicates a contractionary phase. The data released by the IET on the same day showed that among the five components of the PMI, new orders, production, and employment showed expansion, while supplier delivery times increased and inventory levels continued to contract. Among the six major industries, the chemical and biotechnology/medical industry, the food and textile industry, and the electronics and optics industry reported PMI expansion; the power and machinery equipment industry, the transportation industry, and the basic raw material industry reported PMI contraction.
Although the NMI in July continued to show expansion, declines in the stock market and housing controls led to a decrease in the index, with business activity, new orders, and future outlook indexes showing a slowdown in expansion.
Dr. Lian analyzed that there is still an imbalance in the development of Taiwan’s industries, and manufacturers’ outlook for the future has shifted from “very optimistic” to “prudently optimistic,” and they have begun reassessing relevant variables. However, it is expected that the economy will not suddenly experience a significant downturn.
Dr. Lian believes that overall, two major uncertainties need to be observed: first, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, which could affect Taiwan’s semiconductor and electronics industries; and second, the pace of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, which could influence other regions’ assessments of the economy.
Chen Xinhui, an associate researcher at the IET’s Third Research Institute, believes that some Taiwanese industries may adjust their risk assessments due to geopolitical uncertainties, such as the PMI turning contractionary for the basic raw material industry and the power and machinery equipment industry’s PMI only expanding for one month before contracting.
In summary, while Taiwan’s economy remains in an expansionary phase, the pace of expansion has slowed, and manufacturers have adjusted their optimistic outlook and begun reassessing relevant variables. The market expects the economy not to experience a significant decline, but it needs to pay attention to external factors such as the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy.
【来源】http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2024/08-01/10261852.shtml
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