近日，在一场涵盖多家AI公司的行业研讨会上，OpenAI首席运营官布拉德·莱特卡普（Brad Lightcap）表达了对生成式人工智能长期影响的信心。他认为，AI技术所带来的颠覆性潜力是长期性的，而外界可能高估了其短期内的影响。
莱特卡普指出，当前阶段讨论生成式人工智能对生产力增长的直接影响还为时尚早。他强调，重塑经济是一个艰巨且长期的任务，不太可能在未来一年内看到显著成果。即便如此，莱特卡普相信，即使OpenAI停止所有新的开发工作，现有的GPT-4级别技术也足以在未来10到20年内对经济产生深远的影响。
这一观点得到了与会其他AI公司高管的认同。他们普遍认为，尽管生成式人工智能的短期效应可能不明显，但长期来看，这项技术具有巨大的颠覆性潜力。
财联社的报道称，AI行业的专家们普遍认为，当前的AI技术还处在发展的早期阶段，其潜力还有待进一步挖掘。而一旦这一技术成熟，它将在多个领域产生深远的影响，包括但不限于经济、教育、医疗和制造业。
此次研讨会凸显了AI行业对未来发展的乐观态度，并强调了长期投资和研发的重要性。参与讨论的公司均表示，将继续致力于AI技术的创新和进步，以期待实现更为广泛的社会和经济影响。
英语如下：
### AI Exec Predicts: Huge Long-Term Disruptive Potential, Short-Term Impact Overestimated
Keywords: AI Potential, Long-Term Impact, Economic Reshaping
#### Industry Leaders Converge on AI’s Long-Term Disruptive Potential
At a recent industry summit involving several AI companies, Brad Lightcap, COO of OpenAI, reaffirmed the long-term transformative power of generative AI. He contends that the disruptive potential of AI technology is a long-term phenomenon, while the immediate impact may be exaggerated.
Lightcap indicated that it is premature to discuss the direct impact of generative AI on productivity growth at this stage. He emphasized that reshaping the economy is a significant and protracted endeavor, and significant results are unlikely to be seen within the next year. Nevertheless, Lightcap is confident that even if OpenAI ceased all new development, existing technology at the GPT-4 level has the potential to profoundly influence the economy over the next 10 to 20 years.
This perspective was echoed by other AI executives in attendance. They collectively agreed that although the short-term effects of generative AI might not be apparent, the technology holds immense disruptive potential over the long term.
According to a report from财联社, experts in the AI field widely believe that current AI technology is still in its early stages of development, and its full potential remains to be fully realized. Once mature, this technology is expected to have a profound impact across various domains, including but not limited to the economy, education, healthcare, and manufacturing.
The summit highlighted the optimism of the AI industry towards future developments and underscored the importance of long-term investment in research and development. All participating companies committed to continuing their endeavors in AI innovation and advancement in anticipation of achieving broader social and economic impacts.
【来源】https://www.cls.cn/detail/1673731
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