在刚刚过去的2023年，人工智能领域尤其是生成式AI取得了显著的进步。然而，对于即将到来的2024年，一些业内人士预测，即使GPT-5发布，LLM在本质上仍然有限，基本的AGI也不足以实现。这无疑给人们对人工智能的期待带来了降温。
GPT-5，作为OpenAI正在研发的下一代语言模型，备受瞩目。其预计将在模型规模、性能等方面有所提升，但即便如此，LLM（大型语言模型）在本质上仍然有限。业内人士认为，2024年，即使GPT-5发布，也将难以实现基本的AGI（人工通用智能）。
AGI是指具备与人类同等智慧的人工智能，它能理解、学习、适应并执行各种任务。相较于目前市场上火热的大型语言模型，AGI更为全面，能够应对更复杂的问题。然而，根据大佬们的预测，2024年，AGI仍将难以实现。
尽管如此，人工智能的发展步伐并未放缓。从新华社、人民日报到中央电视台、华尔街日报、纽约时报等资深新闻媒体，都在持续关注和报道这一领域。人们对人工智能的探索和期待依然高涨，只是对于2024年能实现AGI的预期，似乎过于乐观。
未来，随着技术的进步，GPT-5等先进模型有望在更多领域发挥巨大作用。但与此同时，我们也应看到，距离实现AGI，仍有很长的路要走。
英文翻译：
News title: GPT-5 Limited, AGI Still Distant in 2024
Keywords: GPT-5, AGI, Artificial Intelligence Development
News content:
In the just-ended 2023, significant progress has been made in the field of artificial intelligence, especially in generative AI. However, for the upcoming 2024, some insiders predict that even with the release of GPT-5, LLM remains limited in essence, and basic AGI is still not enough to be achieved. This undoubtedly brings down the expectations of people for artificial intelligence.
GPT-5, as the next-generation language model being developed by OpenAI, attracts much attention. It is expected to improve in terms of model scale and performance. However, even so, LLM (large language models) remain limited in essence. Insiders believe that in 2024, even with the release of GPT-5, it will be difficult to achieve basic AGI (artificial general intelligence).
AGI refers to artificial intelligence with equal wisdom to humans, which can understand, learn, adapt, and execute various tasks. Compared with the current large-scale language models, AGI is more comprehensive and can cope with more complex problems. However, according to the predictions of insiders, basic AGI remains elusive in 2024.
Nonetheless, the development pace of artificial intelligence has not slowed down. Senior news media such as Xinhua News Agency, People’s Daily, China Central Television, Wall Street Journal, and New York Times continue to follow and report on this field. People’s exploration and anticipation of artificial intelligence remain high, but the expectation of achieving AGI in 2024 seems overly optimistic.
In the future, with the advancement of technology, advanced models such as GPT-5 are expected to play a significant role in more fields. However, we should also see that there is still a long way to go before achieving AGI.
【来源】https://www.ithome.com/0/742/812.htm
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