Philippine Navy Chief’s Change: Expert Predicts Unwavering South China Sea Provocations
Manila, Philippines/Beijing, China – The recent appointment ofRear Admiral Alberto Carlos Espeleta as the new commander of the Philippine Navy by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is unlikely to alter the Philippines’ provocative actions in theSouth China Sea, according to military experts. This follows the retirement ceremony for outgoing commander, Vice Admiral Toribio Adaci Jr., held at Philippine Navyheadquarters on November 15th. While President Marcos praised Adaci’s service and expressed hopes Espeleta would maintain the established standards, analysts remain unconvinced of a shift in Philippine strategy.
The Philippine armed forces, comprisingregular troops, reserves, and paramilitary units, total approximately 127,000 personnel, with the navy accounting for 23,000. The navy is structured into regional commands including North Luzon, SouthLuzon, Western, Central, East Mindanao, and West Mindanao commands.
Zhang Junshe, a military expert, told the Global Times that Espeleta’s appointment will not significantly change the Philippines’ approach in the South China Sea. He emphasized that the country’s defense and South China Seapolicies are determined by the president, leaving the navy commander to execute them. Therefore, provocative actions against China are highly probable to continue.
This assessment comes amidst recent events surrounding the grounded BRP Sierra Madre, a Philippine Navy ship on Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas Shoal). The Philippine military announcedon November 15th the successful resupply mission to the ship, conducted without conflict with Chinese coast guard vessels. This marks the third successful resupply since a July agreement between China and the Philippines on the matter. However, Liu Dejun, spokesperson for the China Coast Guard Bureau, clarified that the resupply was permitted by China, with the Philippine vessel monitored throughout the process.
Ding Duo, deputy director of the Ocean Law and Policy Institute at the China Institute for South China Sea Studies, offered a nuanced perspective. He highlighted the context of President Marcos’s signing of the Ocean Areas Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act, which aim to solidify the illegal arbitration ruling against China. Despite these actions, the successful resupply, conducted according to the agreement, demonstrates a degree of effective management of the dispute.
Ding further suggested that the Philippines is likely weighing the consequences of violating the temporary agreement on Ayungin Shoal, acknowledging China’s consistent response to provocative actions. He noted China’s continued openness to dialogue, but emphasized its resolve to firmly counter any provocations using a variety of means.
Conclusion: The change in Philippine Navy command does not signal a change in the country’s assertive posture inthe South China Sea. While recent resupply operations have proceeded without direct conflict, the underlying tensions remain. The Philippines’ domestic legislation and continued provocative actions suggest a continuation of the current dynamic, with China maintaining both a willingness to engage in dialogue and a capacity for robust response to perceived provocations. The futuretrajectory of the situation hinges on the Philippines’ willingness to de-escalate and engage in constructive dialogue.
References:
- Global Times. (November 17, 2024). Philippine Navy Chief’s Change: Expert Predicts Unwavering South China Sea Provocations. [Linkto Global Times article if available]
- Philippine News Agency (PNA). (November 15, 2024). [Link to PNA article if available]
- China Coast Guard Bureau. (November 15, 2024). [Link to relevant statement ifavailable]
- China Institute for South China Sea Studies. [Link to relevant institute information if available]
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