TRUMP WIN，特朗普赢得 2024 年美国总统选举，时隔四年，重回白宫。 商人、地产大亨、电视明星、前总统，唐纳德·特朗普——这位在四次刑事起诉和 91 项重罪指控阴影下的政治人物，正在创造着美国政治史上最不可思议的“东山再起”。 这不仅是一场关于政治的叙事，更是一个将深刻影响全球金融市场的关键时刻。 特朗普标志性的“美国优先”政策、充满争议的贸易立场、对比特币等加密货币的支持，都可能在全球金融市场掀起新一轮的波澜。 随着川普的胜率攀升，比特币持续突破历史新高。 当华尔街的交易员们注视着这场政治剧变，当全球投资者权衡着各种可能性，我们或许正站在一个新的金融时代的门槛上。这个时代，将由一位极具争议的政治人物，用他独特的方式重新定义。 特朗普未来的经济政策，以及对美股和加密货币市场的影响几何？深潮 TechFlow 为您解答探秘。
特朗普经济政策总结
首先，我们要知道特朗普的基本盘，也就是核心选民群体主要是“红脖子”，也就是福音派中低收入白人、“铁锈带”和农业州居民构成。 相较于拜登所倡导的全球自由化，他们更倾向于孤立主义，认同特朗普的“美国优先”战略，担心经济和就业，代表着石油业，汽车业，工业，运输业，原材料业等行业的利益。 政策上，特朗普坚持“美国优先”，保护美国本土制造业利益，希望对外国公司征税的普遍基准关税，增加能源供应，推进石油生产，为石油、天然气和煤炭生产商提供税收减免等。 我们对其核心经济政策进行了总结：
1.贸易政策
计划对大多数从其他国家进口到美国的商品征收至少 10% 的关税，对中国进口商品的关税可能提高到 60% 或更高； 推出《特朗普互惠贸易法案》，旨在“阻止美国就业机会流向海外”，逐步停止从特定国家进口电子产品、钢铁和药品等必需品，并禁止特定国家公司拥有美国能源、技术和农田等领域的基础设施；
2.财政税收政策
延长其在 2017 年签署的《减税与就业法案》，该法案将企业税率从 35% 降至 21%； 计划将企业税率进一步降到 15%，为工人大幅减税，包括取消餐馆和酒店业工人的小费税； 坚持“美国优先”，保护美国本土制造业利益，承诺将通过制定“奖励国内生产”和对外国公司征税的普遍基准关税，为美国工人“降低税收、增加薪水和增加就业机会”；
3.移民政策
承诺开展“美国历史上最大规模的驱逐行动”，计划每年驱逐数百万非法移民； 计划终止非法移民子女自动获得公民身份； 停止“生育旅游”，暂停难民入境；
4.能源政策
首要任务之一是“DRILL, BABY, DRILL”（DRILL 译为钻探）。增加石油钻探，为石油、天然气和煤炭生产商提供税收减免； 反对政府对风电开发的现有补贴； 计划推翻拜登政府的电动汽车目标，大力发展传统汽车产业；
5.基础设施投资
表示将纳税人的钱用于道路、桥梁、水坝等基建项目； 强调不会将资金“花在毫无意义的绿色新骗局上”；
6.医疗政策
计划恢复其 2020 年 8 月的行政命令，旨在确保基本药物、医疗对策和关键投入在美国生产； 考虑废除或改进《平价医疗法案》，以降低成本；
7.加密货币政策
曾对加密货币持怀疑批评态度的特朗普，如今已转变立场，成为支持加密货币的总统候选人。 2024 年 7 月，在比特币大会上，特朗普近乎毫无保留的表达了对比特币的爱意，表示比特币市值会超过黄金，当选后会让加密不友好的 SEC 主席下台，并宣布他希望美国成为 “全球加密货币之都” 和比特币的 “世界超级大国”。 特朗普的一些加密货币政策提议包括： 建立比特币的政府储备：政府将 “保留美国政府当前持有或未来获取的 100% 的比特币” 成立加密货币顾问委员会。 阻止创建央行数字货币（CBDC）。
对金融市场的影响
特朗普当选后，大概率会延续其之前的政策思路，继续大规模推动刺激性的财政政策，并向美联储施压实施大幅度降息，这对于金融市场来说像是“狂欢的延续”。
美元指数
特朗普一直主张弱势美元政策。 特朗普不认可强势美元对美国经济利益的影响，认为强势美元是美国制造业复苏的重要障碍，而削弱美元对其他货币的汇率将有助于缩窄贸易逆差，推动“再工业化”。 前特朗普政府的贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽（Robert Lighthizer），目前被视为财政部部长候选人，同样倾向于美元走弱。 但是，现实可能并不完全顺应特朗普的心意，特朗普的标志性经济政策是提高进口商品关税和减税，外汇市场会根据外汇需求的变化进行调整，减税会给利率带来上行压力，这两项举措可能反而助推美元上涨。
美股
在特朗普的上一任期内，一直将美股视为其核心功绩之一，所以特朗普的上台，有望继续延续美股的长牛趋势。 特朗普实施大规模的财政刺激政策，打压美元，以及大幅度降低企业税率等，这些政策会刺激企业盈利，从而推动股市上涨。 但是也存在黑天鹅因素，那就是其贸易政策和国际关系立场可能会影响全球经济，进而影响美国股市的长期表现。 从板块上来看，传统能源、国防和基础设施相关行业可能会受益，而环保和可再生能源行业可能面临挑战，不过特斯拉应该除外。
加密货币
特朗普上台，有利于加密货币的发展。 根据其此前的承诺，特朗普会推动更加友好的加密货币政策，这可能包括放松监管或提供更明确的法律框架。 此前，特朗普曾表示，若当选总统，将解雇美国证券交易委员会(SEC)现任主席 Gary Gensler，并聘请支持加密货币的监管者。 其中，DeFi 板块将直接受益于弱监管环境，过去无论是 UNI 还是 AAVE 均受制于 SEC 的强监管。特朗普家族此前发行的加密货币项目 World Liberty Financial（WLFI）也属于 DeFi 类别，曾于 Aave 治理论坛发起提案，希望基于 Aave V3 构建一个定制化的借贷市场。 其次，特朗普本轮选举的铁杆支持者马斯克概念代币也将受益，最典型的就是 DOGE。 马斯克曾表示想创造一个「政治效率部」(Department of Government Efficiency)，简称 DOGE，而该命名概念就是由 DOGE 社群建议马斯克而来。而川普也回应，如果当选将建立该部门，将对政府进行全面的财务审计，并提出减少浪费。因此 DOGE 的币价表现也与总统大选开始有了挂钩。
黄金
对于黄金而言，特朗普若当选，其“美国优先”政策主张以及贸易保护措施或加剧地缘政治风险，利好黄金、比特币等具备避险属性资产。此外，从货币属性和金融属性看，特朗普的弱势美元、减税及加关税政策可能促使通胀抬升，黄金价格可能仍将保持强势。
TRUMP WIN, Trump won the 2024 US presidential election and returned to the White House after four years. Businessman, real estate tycoon, TV star, former president, Donald Trump – this politician under the shadow of four criminal prosecutions and 91 felony charges is creating the most incredible “comeback” in American political history. This is not only a narrative about politics, but also a critical moment that will profoundly affect the global financial market. Trump’s iconic “America First” policy, controversial trade stance, and support for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin may all set off a new round of waves in the global financial market. As Trump’s winning rate climbs, Bitcoin continues to break through historical highs. As Wall Street traders watch this political upheaval and global investors weigh various possibilities, we may be standing on the threshold of a new financial era. This era will be redefined by a highly controversial politician in his own unique way. What will Trump’s future economic policies be and what will be the impact on the US stock and cryptocurrency markets? Deep Tide TechFlow will answer the mystery for you.
Summary of Trump’s economic policies
First, we need to know that Trump’s base, that is, the core voter group, is mainly composed of “rednecks”, that is, evangelical low-income whites, “rust belt” and agricultural state residents. Compared with the global liberalization advocated by Biden, they are more inclined to isolationism, agree with Trump’s “America First” strategy, worry about the economy and employment, and represent the interests of the oil industry, automobile industry, industry, transportation industry, raw materials industry and other industries. In terms of policy, Trump insists on “America First”, protects the interests of domestic manufacturing in the United States, hopes to impose universal benchmark tariffs on foreign companies, increase energy supply, promote oil production, and provide tax breaks for oil, gas and coal producers. We have summarized its core economic policies:
- Trade policy
Plans to impose tariffs of at least 10% on most goods imported from other countries to the United States, and tariffs on Chinese imports may be raised to 60% or higher; Introduced the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, which aims to “stop American jobs from flowing overseas”, gradually stop importing necessities such as electronics, steel and medicines from specific countries, and prohibit companies from specific countries from owning infrastructure in areas such as energy, technology and farmland in the United States;
- Fiscal and tax policies
Extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed by it in 2017, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%; Plans to further reduce the corporate tax rate to 15%, and significantly reduce taxes for workers, including the elimination of the tip tax for restaurant and hotel workers; Adhere to “America First”, protect the interests of domestic manufacturing in the United States, and promise to “reduce taxes, increase wages and increase jobs” for American workers by establishing a universal benchmark tariff that “rewards domestic production” and taxes foreign companies;
- Immigration policy
Promises to launch the “largest deportation operation in U.S. history” and plans to deport millions of illegal immigrants each year; plans to end automatic citizenship for children of illegal immigrants; stops “birth tourism” and suspends refugee admissions;
- Energy policy
One of the top priorities is “DRILL, BABY, DRILL” (DRILL translates to drilling). Increase oil drilling and provide tax breaks for oil, gas and coal producers; Oppose existing government subsidies for wind power development; Plan to overturn the Biden administration’s electric vehicle goals and vigorously develop the traditional auto industry;
- Infrastructure investment
Say taxpayers’ money will be used for infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, and dams; Emphasize that the funds will not be “spent on meaningless green new scams”;
- Medical policy
Plan to restore its August 2020 executive order aimed at ensuring that basic drugs, medical countermeasures and key inputs are produced in the United States; Consider repealing or improving the Affordable Care Act to reduce costs;
- Cryptocurrency policy
Trump, who was once skeptical and critical of cryptocurrencies, has now changed his position and become a presidential candidate who supports cryptocurrencies. In July 2024, at the Bitcoin Conference, Trump expressed his love for Bitcoin almost unreservedly, saying that the market value of Bitcoin would exceed that of gold, and after being elected, he would make the crypto-unfriendly SEC chairman step down, and announced that he hopes the United States will become the “global cryptocurrency capital” and Bitcoin’s “world superpower.” Some of Trump’s cryptocurrency policy proposals include: Establishing a government reserve of Bitcoin: The government will “retain 100% of the Bitcoin currently held or acquired by the U.S. government in the future” Establishing a cryptocurrency advisory committee. Preventing the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
Impact on financial markets
After Trump’s election, he is likely to continue his previous policy thinking, continue to promote stimulating fiscal policies on a large scale, and put pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a substantial interest rate cut, which is like a “continuation of the carnival” for the financial market.
US dollar index
Trump has always advocated a weak dollar policy. Trump does not recognize the impact of a strong dollar on the economic interests of the United States. He believes that a strong dollar is an important obstacle to the recovery of the U.S. manufacturing industry, and weakening the exchange rate of the dollar against other currencies will help narrow the trade deficit and promote “re-industrialization.” Robert Lighthizer, the former trade representative of the Trump administration, is currently considered a candidate for Treasury Secretary and is also inclined to a weaker dollar. However, the reality may not be completely in line with Trump’s wishes. Trump’s signature economic policy is to increase tariffs on imported goods and reduce taxes. The foreign exchange market will adjust according to changes in foreign exchange demand. Tax cuts will put upward pressure on interest rates. These two measures may instead boost the dollar.
US stocks
During Trump’s previous term, the US stock market has always been regarded as one of his core achievements, so Trump’s coming to power is expected to continue the long bull trend of the US stock market. Trump has implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus policies, suppressed the US dollar, and significantly reduced corporate tax rates. These policies will stimulate corporate profits and thus drive the stock market up. However, there are also black swan factors, that is, his trade policies and international relations positions may affect the global economy and thus affect the long-term performance of the US stock market. From the perspective of sectors, traditional energy, defense and infrastructure-related industries may benefit, while environmental protection and renewable energy industries may face challenges, but Tesla should be an exception.
Cryptocurrency
Trump’s coming to power is conducive to the development of cryptocurrency. According to his previous promises, Trump will promote more friendly cryptocurrency policies, which may include relaxing regulations or providing a clearer legal framework. Previously, Trump said that if he was elected president, he would fire Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and hire regulators who support cryptocurrencies. Among them, the DeFi sector will directly benefit from the weak regulatory environment. In the past, both UNI and AAVE were subject to strong regulation by the SEC. World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a cryptocurrency project previously issued by the Trump family, also belongs to the DeFi category. It has initiated a proposal in the Aave governance forum, hoping to build a customized lending market based on Aave V3. Secondly, Musk’s concept tokens, a die-hard supporter of Trump in this round of elections, will also benefit, the most typical of which is DOGE. Musk once said that he wanted to create a “Department of Government Efficiency”, referred to as DOGE, and the naming concept came from the DOGE community’s suggestion to Musk. Trump also responded that if elected, he would establish the department, conduct a comprehensive financial audit of the government, and propose to reduce waste. Therefore, the price performance of DOGE has also begun to be linked to the presidential election.
Gold
For gold, if Trump is elected, his “America First” policy and trade protection measures may increase geopolitical risks, which is good for gold, Bitcoin and other safe-haven assets. In addition, from the perspective of monetary and financial attributes, Trump’s weak dollar, tax cuts and tariffs may lead to higher inflation, and gold prices may remain strong.
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