Harris Victory Seen as Most Likely Election Outcome, CNBC Fed Survey Reveals
A new surveyof economists conducted by CNBC suggests that a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in theupcoming presidential election is the most likely outcome. The survey, which polled a group of prominent economists, found that a majority believe Harris is best positioned to win thepresidency, with President Donald Trump trailing behind in second place.
The CNBC Fed Survey, a regular gauge of economic sentiment and policy expectations, has historically been a reliablepredictor of election outcomes. This year, the survey’s findings are particularly noteworthy given the current political climate and the highly contested nature of the upcoming election.
The survey’s findings highlight a number of factors that could contribute to aHarris victory. These include:
- A strong economy: The U.S. economy has shown signs of recovery in recent months, with unemployment rates falling and consumer confidence rising. This economic strength could benefit Harris, who is seen as acandidate who can maintain this positive trajectory.
- Trump’s unpopularity: Trump’s approval ratings have remained consistently low throughout his presidency, and many voters are dissatisfied with his handling of issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the economy. This dissatisfaction could lead to a significant number of voters seekingchange, potentially benefiting Harris.
- Increased voter turnout: The 2020 election saw record voter turnout, and experts predict that this trend will continue in 2024. This could benefit Harris, who is expected to mobilize a strong base of support among young voters, minority groups, andwomen.
However, the survey also acknowledges that the election is far from certain. Trump remains a formidable opponent, and the race could be close. The survey’s findings suggest that the election will likely hinge on a number of factors, including the state of the economy, the candidates’ performance in thedebates, and the level of voter turnout.
The CNBC Fed Survey’s findings provide a valuable insight into the current state of the presidential race. While the election is still months away, the survey suggests that Harris is currently the frontrunner, with a number of factors working in her favor. However, therace remains tight, and the outcome will likely be determined by a number of factors that are still unfolding.
References:
- CNBC Fed Survey (2023)
- [Link to CNBC article on the survey]
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