##乌军进攻库尔斯克，战略失误还是声东击西？
**中新网8月21日电**（郑云天） 乌克兰军队攻入俄罗斯库尔斯克州已近半个月，双方交战仍十分激烈。乌军先后袭击了谢伊姆河上的多座桥梁，并不断夺取定居点，这场攻势似乎让乌克兰看到了希望。然而，另一个战场，或许将成为他们的“噩梦”。
乌克兰总统泽连斯基公开表示，攻入库尔斯克州是为了建立一个缓冲区。有分析认为，乌克兰此次突袭库尔斯克，并非真正意图“攻城略地”，而是试图吸引俄罗斯的注意力，利用“本土被攻占”所造成的政治压力，逼迫俄罗斯调动乌克兰东部前线的部队回援，达到“攻敌必救”“围魏救赵”的效果。
然而，俄罗斯的反应似乎并没有像乌军所设想的那样。俄罗斯“中央”集群18日占领乌克兰顿涅茨克方向的“纽约镇”，这座乌克兰军队自2014年就经营的要塞终告易手。乌克兰方面在社交媒体上承认：俄罗斯人已经占领了“纽约镇”，正在向托列茨克方向的涅列皮夫卡附近推进。
“纽约镇”位于乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区，是乌克兰东部要塞区域的一个核心。目前，俄军的攻势也已经逼近顿涅茨克地区波克罗夫斯克，离城郊只有10公里了。当地政府说，俄军推进如此之快，居民已接到命令，从当地时间21日开始撤离该市及周边城镇和村庄。波克罗夫斯克是乌克兰在顿涅茨克地区的主要防御据点和关键后勤枢纽之一。如果这座城市失守，乌军的防御能力和补给线将受损，而俄军将更加接近其公开宣称的“控制整个顿涅茨克”的目标。
自乌军对库尔斯克发动攻势以来，俄罗斯只部署了有限的兵力进行防御，并没有大规模从乌东撤军。乌克兰在乌东所面临的压力反而增大了。据《纽约时报》报道，部署在顿涅茨克的一支乌军部队发言人向该报抱怨说，自乌军对库尔斯克发动攻势以来，乌东前线战区的情况变得更糟，乌军获分配的弹药比以前来得少。
美国智库战争研究所分析认为，乌军对库尔斯克的攻势可能是一个“重大战略失误”。他们认为，乌克兰军队在库尔斯克的行动分散了资源，削弱了他们在顿涅茨克的防御力量，最终可能导致乌军在顿涅茨克战线的崩溃。
目前，乌军进攻库尔斯克的战略意图尚不明确。是否如分析人士所言，乌军此举是一个“重大战略失误”，还是声东击西的战术，最终结果仍需时间检验。
英语如下：
##Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive: A Major Blunder or Strategic Maneuver?
**Keywords:** Ukrainian offensive, Kursk battle, major blunder
**Content:**
**BEIJING, August 21 (Xinhua)** – The Ukrainian army has been engaged in a fierce battle in Russia’sKursk Oblast for nearly two weeks. Ukrainian forces have attacked multiple bridges over the Seim River and captured settlements, seemingly giving Ukraine a glimmer of hope. However, another battlefield might become their “nightmare.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly stated that the incursion into Kursk Oblast was to establish a buffer zone. Some analysts believe that Ukraine’s attack on Kursk was not intended to “capture territory” but rather to draw Russian attention. By creating political pressure through the “occupation of their homeland,” Ukraine aims to force Russia to redeploy troops from the eastern Ukrainian front, achieving the effect of “attacking the enemy to savethem” or “besieging Wei to rescue Zhao.”
However, Russia’s response seems to have deviated from Ukraine’s expectations. On August 18, Russia’s “Central” cluster captured “New York Town” in the Donetsk direction of Ukraine. This fortress, which had been under Ukrainiancontrol since 2014, finally fell. Ukrainian sources confirmed on social media that Russian forces had captured “New York Town” and were advancing towards Nelypivka near Toretsk.
“New York Town” is located in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, a core area of the eastern Ukrainian fortress zone. Currently, Russian forces have also approached Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, just 10 kilometers from the city’s outskirts. Local authorities have issued an evacuation order for the city and surrounding towns and villages starting August 21. Pokrovsk is one of Ukraine’s main defense strongholds andkey logistical hubs in the Donetsk region. If the city falls, Ukraine’s defense capabilities and supply lines will be compromised, and Russian forces will be closer to their publicly declared goal of “controlling the entire Donetsk.”
Since the Ukrainian offensive on Kursk, Russia has deployed only limited forces for defense and has not withdrawntroops from eastern Ukraine on a large scale. The pressure on Ukraine in eastern Ukraine has actually increased. According to The New York Times, a spokesperson for a Ukrainian unit deployed in Donetsk complained to the newspaper that the situation on the eastern Ukrainian front had worsened since the Ukrainian offensive on Kursk, and Ukrainian troops were receiving lessammunition than before.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, believes that Ukraine’s offensive on Kursk could be a “major strategic blunder.” They argue that Ukrainian actions in Kursk have dispersed resources and weakened their defenses in Donetsk, potentially leading to the collapse of Ukrainian forces on the Donetskfront.
The strategic intent of Ukraine’s offensive on Kursk remains unclear. Whether, as analysts suggest, this move is a “major strategic blunder” or a feint, only time will tell the ultimate outcome.
【来源】http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2024/08-21/10272614.shtml
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