##南非通胀率降至三年来最低水平，降息预期升温
**中新网约翰内斯堡8月21日电(记者 王曦)** 当地时间8月21日，据南非统计局公布的数据显示，该国7月份的通胀率从6月份的5.1%降至4.6%，这是自2021年7月以来的三年时间中，南非通胀率的最低水平。这一消息引发市场对南非央行降息的预期。
南非统计局表示，食品通胀率从6月份的4.6%降至4.5%，其中玉米粉等主食价格明显下降，但面包和谷物价格有所上涨。受燃料价格连续第二次下跌的影响，7月份的运输通胀率也从上个月的5.5%降至4.2%。内陆95号汽油和柴油价格分别下跌0.99兰特和0.41兰特。相比之下，住房和公用事业部门7月份增长了2.6%。尽管电费、水费和房地产费的涨幅低于前几年，但电费仍然是增长最快的，2024年至今已上涨12.1%。
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家戴维·奥莫乔莫洛指出，7月的通胀数据进一步强化了降息的理由。他表示，南非7月总体通胀率同比下降至4.6%，降幅超出预期，这为南非储备银行启动宽松周期提供了有力支持。
奥莫乔莫洛还指出，根据最新数据，通胀的基本指标显示价格压力已得到控制，7月的通胀数据进一步证实了这一观点。他预测，到今年年底，通胀率可能会降至4%以下，因此南非央行预计将于9月份开始宽松周期。
南非通胀率的下降，得益于一系列因素，包括全球大宗商品价格回落、南非兰特汇率走强以及政府采取的抑制通胀措施。然而，南非经济仍面临着诸多挑战，包括高失业率、能源短缺以及基础设施薄弱等。
南非央行将在9月份的货币政策委员会会议上决定是否降息。市场普遍预期，南非央行将在未来几个月内逐步降息，以刺激经济增长。
英语如下：
##South Africa’s Inflation Rate Hits Three-Year Low, Fueling Rate CutExpectations
**JOHANNESBURG, Aug. 21 (Xinhua)** -South Africa’s inflation rate fell to its lowest level in three years, dropping to 4.6% in July from 5.1% in June, according to data released by Statistics South Africa on Monday. The news has sparked expectations of a rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).
Statistics South Africa said food inflation eased to 4.5% in July from 4.6% in June, with prices of staple foods such as maize meal declining significantly. However, bread and cereal prices rose. Transport inflation also fellto 4.2% in July from 5.5% the previous month, driven by a second consecutive decline in fuel prices. Inland 95-octane petrol and diesel prices fell by 0.99 rand and0.41 rand, respectively. In contrast, the housing and utilities sector grew by 2.6% in July. While electricity, water, and property fees rose at a slower pace than in previous years, electricity prices remained the fastest-growing, rising 12.1% year-to-date in 2024.
David Omojojumolo, an economist at Capital Economics, noted that the July inflation data further strengthens the case for a rate cut. He said the overall inflation rate in South Africa fell to 4.6% year-on-year in July, exceeding expectations, providingstrong support for the SARB to initiate an easing cycle.
Omojojumolo also pointed out that core inflation indicators, which exclude volatile items, suggest that price pressures are under control, and the July inflation data further confirms this view. He predicts that inflation could fall below 4% by the end of the year, leading the SARB to begin an easing cycle in September.
The decline in South Africa’s inflation rate is attributed to a number of factors, including a fall in global commodity prices, a strengthening of the rand, and government measures to curb inflation. However, the South African economy still faces a number of challenges, including high unemployment, energy shortages, and weak infrastructure.
The SARB will decide whether to cut interest rates at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September. Market expectations are for the SARB to gradually cut rates in the coming months to stimulate economic growth.
【来源】http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2024/08-21/10272623.shtml
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