【北京】人工智能领域的一项重大预测近日由Anthropic公司的首席执行官Dean Amodei提出，他认为随着人工智能技术的不断发展，训练最先进的大型语言模型的成本将迅速攀升，预计在2025年至2026年间将高达100亿美元。在接受《纽约时报》记者Ezra Klein的播客采访时，Amodei详细阐述了这一观点。
Amodei表示，目前训练一个大型语言模型的成本大约在1亿美元左右，但这一数字可能会因为技术进步和模型规模的扩大而增加。他预计，随着新一代模型的推出，成本将上升至10亿美元左右。“现在的模型训练成本大约在1亿美元，有时甚至会达到2到3亿美元。目前正在训练的模型，以及计划在接下来几年推出的新模型，预计成本将接近10亿美元。”
Amodei预测，未来几年，随着人工智能技术的进一步发展，尤其是当模型达到更高级的复杂性和能力时，训练成本将会大幅增加。他预计，到2025年和2026年，训练最先进的人工智能模型的成本将需要50到100亿美元。这一预测对人工智能行业的投资者和研究人员来说是一个重要的信号，提醒他们未来在人工智能领域的投入将会更加巨大。
这一预测也引发了公众对于人工智能伦理和治理的讨论。随着人工智能技术的发展，如何确保这些技术的开发和应用符合社会利益，避免可能的负面影响，成为了一个亟待解决的问题。业界和监管机构都在思考如何制定相应的政策和规范，以引导人工智能的健康发展。
据悉，Anthropic公司是一家专注于人工智能伦理和治理的初创企业，其CEO的这一预测为业界敲响了警钟，同时也为未来的研究和发展指出了方向。随着技术的不断进步，人工智能领域的投资和研究将会面临更大的挑战和机遇。
英语如下：
Title: “AI Model Costs Soar: The $10 Billion Era Approaches”
Keywords: AI model costs, Anthropic CEO predicts surge
Content:
[Beijing] A significant prediction in the field of artificial intelligence was recently made by Dean Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, who believes that as artificial intelligence technology continues to develop, the cost of training the most advanced large language models will rapidly increase. Amodei outlined his view in a podcast interview with Ezra Klein of The New York Times.
Amodei stated that the current cost of training a large language model is approximately $100 million, but this figure may increase due to technological advancements and the expansion of model sizes. He predicts that as newer models are released, the cost will rise to around $10 billion. “The cost of training current models and those planned for the next few years is expected to be close to $10 billion,” Amodei said.
Amodei predicts that over the next few years, as artificial intelligence technology continues to evolve, especially when models reach a higher level of complexity and capability, the cost of training will significantly increase. He expects that by 2025 and 2026, the cost of training the most advanced artificial intelligence models will require between $5 billion and $10 billion. This prediction serves as an important signal for investors and researchers in the artificial intelligence industry, reminding them of the greater investments required in the future for artificial intelligence.
The prediction has also sparked public discussion on the ethics and governance of artificial intelligence. As artificial intelligence technology develops, the question of how to ensure that the development and application of these technologies align with societal interests and avoid potential negative impacts becomes an urgent issue. Industry and regulatory bodies are considering how to establish appropriate policies and regulations to guide the healthy development of artificial intelligence.
It is reported that Anthropic, a startup focused on the ethics and governance of artificial intelligence, has sent a warning to the industry with its CEO’s prediction and has also pointed the way for future research and development. As technology continues to advance, the investment and research in the artificial intelligence field will face greater challenges and opportunities.
【来源】https://the-decoder.com/anthropic-ceo-believes-leading-ai-models-will-soon-cost-up-to-ten-billion-dollars/
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