特斯拉和SpaceX的创始人埃隆·马斯克在X社交媒体上发表了一条引人深思的预测，他认为人工智能（AI）将在不久的将来超越人类的智能。马斯克表示，到2023年，AI的智慧可能将超过任何一个个体人类，而在短短的十年后，即2029年，AI的智能水平将超越全球所有人类的总和。
这一言论是在回应未来学家Ray Kurzweil的一项预测之后发表的，Kurzweil预测AI将在2029年达到人类水平的智能。他在一个视频节目中表示，虽然目前尚未实现这一目标，但他坚信这一里程碑式的事件将在未来十年内发生。Kurzweil的预测在科技界被视为相对保守，因为有人认为AI可能在更短的时间内就能达到人类智能的水平。
马斯克的预测再次引发了公众对AI发展速度和潜在影响的讨论。作为一位知名的科技巨头，马斯克过去曾多次警告AI可能带来的风险，包括工作岗位的流失和潜在的全球安全威胁。他强调，随着AI智能的飞速提升，我们需要在技术进步的同时，制定相应的监管措施，以确保其对社会的益处大于风险。
此次马斯克和Kurzweil的预测再次将人工智能推向了公众辩论的中心，引发了人们对科技进步与人类未来关系的深思。随着AI技术的不断发展，如何在保持科技进步的活力与确保人类福祉之间找到平衡，已成为全球科技和政策制定者面临的重大挑战。
英语如下：
**News Title:** “Musk Warns: AI to Outperform Individuals by 2023, Match Human Collective Intelligence by 2029”
**Keywords:** Musk’s prediction, Artificial Intelligence, 2029
**News Content:**
Elon Musk, founder of Tesla and SpaceX, made a thought-provoking prediction on the X social media platform, suggesting that artificial intelligence (AI) will surpass human intelligence in the near future. According to Musk, by 2023, AI’s wisdom could exceed that of any single individual, and by 2029, its cognitive capabilities will match the combined intelligence of all humans on Earth.
This statement came in response to futurist Ray Kurzweil’s prediction that AI would reach human-level intelligence in 2029. Kurzweil, in a video program, acknowledged that the milestone has not yet been achieved but expressed confidence that it would occur within the next decade. Kurzweil’s forecast is considered relatively conservative within the tech community, as some believe AI could attain human-like intelligence even sooner.
Musk’s prediction has reignited public discourse on the pace of AI development and its potential impact. A renowned tech mogul, Musk has previously warned about the risks associated with AI, including job displacement and potential global security threats. He emphasizes the need for concurrent regulatory measures as AI’s intelligence accelerates, to ensure that the benefits outweigh the risks for society.
The forecasts by Musk and Kurzweil have placed AI at the center of public debate, prompting deep reflection on the relationship between technological progress and humanity’s future. As AI technology continues to advance, striking a balance between maintaining the momentum of scientific progress and safeguarding human well-being presents a significant challenge for global tech leaders and policymakers.
【来源】https://www.yicai.com/news/102025297.html
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