随着23年生成式AI的热潮逐渐消退，业界的目光转向了新的一年——24年。尽管近期有关GPT-5的传闻四起，但据新智元报道，多位资深AI专家和业界大佬一致认为，2024年我们不应当期待任何革命性的突破。
这些大佬指出，即使GPT-5这样的大型语言模型（LLM）发布，其内在的能力仍然存在显著局限。他们强调，LLM尽管在自然语言处理方面取得了显著进步，但在理解复杂情境和模拟人类智能方面，仍无法与真正的人工智能（AGI）相提并论。因此，他们预测，在即将到来的24年，AGI的实现并不会如一些人所期待的那样迅速到来。
尽管如此，AI领域的进步并不会停滞不前。专家们预计，24年AI的发展将更加侧重于实际应用的深化和现有技术的优化，比如在医疗诊断、自动驾驶和智能制造等领域取得更广泛和精准的落地。他们呼吁，公众和业界应当保持理性期待，同时加大对AI伦理和社会影响的研究，以确保技术的发展与社会的需求相协调。
总的来说，24年的AI世界或许不会带来彻底的变革，但持续的微创新和逐步的积累，无疑将推动人工智能向更成熟、更智能的方向稳步前进。
英语如下：
News Title: “24-Year AGI Dream Unfulfilled, AI Giants Predict: GPT-5 Won’t Cross the Threshold”
Keywords: AI limitations, GPT-5 expectations, AGI delays
News Content:
Title: 24 Years On: AI Pioneers Forecast GPT-5 and AGI Breakthroughs Still Years Away
As the hype around 23-year’s generative AI subsides, the industry’s focus shifts to the upcoming year, 24. Amidst the flurry of GPT-5 rumors, according to New Smart Age reports, numerous esteemed AI experts and industry leaders uniformly believe that 2024 won’t witness any groundbreaking revolutions.
These luminaries point out that, even with the release of a large language model (LLM) like GPT-5, inherent capabilities remain significantly limited. They emphasize that while LLMs have made remarkable strides in natural language processing, they still fall short in understanding complex contexts and mimicking human intelligence compared to true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Hence, they predict that AGI realization in the impending 24th year won’t come as swiftly as some might hope.
Nonetheless, progress in AI won’t stand still. Experts anticipate that in 24, advancements will focus more on deepening practical applications and refining existing technologies, such as broader and more precise deployments in medical diagnosis, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing. They urge the public and the industry to maintain rational expectations while increasing research on AI ethics and its societal impacts, ensuring technological development aligns with societal needs.
In summary, while 24’s AI landscape might not bring a transformative shift, continuous incremental innovations and steady accumulation will undoubtedly propel artificial intelligence towards a more mature and intelligent future.
【来源】https://www.ithome.com/0/742/812.htm
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