近日，数字存储分析师汤姆·考富林和行业相关人士汤姆·加德纳共同绘制了传统机械硬盘自上世纪50年代末以来的收入情况。据悉，自IBM推出全球首款数字硬盘以来，传统机械硬盘已浮沉近70年。在这70年里，机械硬盘的年收入经历了从约40亿美元增至200多亿美元的突破性增长，以及90年代的一定增长，但收入的可预测性要差得多，波动也更大。
据汤姆·考富林介绍，机械硬盘行业在20世纪80年代实现了突破性增长，这10年时间里，年收入从约40亿美元增至200多亿美元。然而，在2000年代前半期，行业收入有所下降，但到十年中期市场趋于稳定并持续增长，2012年达到约370亿美元的峰值。他认为，这可能与前一年泰国大范围洪灾有关，洪灾导致硬盘价格在2012年突破顶峰。
汤姆·考富林还指出，硬盘行业的出货量在2010年达到顶峰，出货量为6.51亿块。相比之下，2022年的硬盘出货量仅为1.72亿块，2023年的出货量预计约为1.27亿块，总容量不到900EB。自2012年以来，由于固态硬盘的崛起，硬盘收入一直呈下降趋势。然而，汤姆·考富林认为，今年这种情况可能会发生变化，因为人工智能对存储需求的增长可能会推动机械硬盘收入的增长。
目前，机械硬盘即将迈入“古稀之年”，但随着人工智能、大数据等技术的发展，未来机械硬盘仍有可能迎来新的应用场景和发展机遇。同时，固态硬盘的崛起也为机械硬盘带来了竞争压力，促使行业不断创新和突破。在这个过程中，传统机械硬盘将与固态硬盘等新型存储技术共同发展，为用户提供更多样化、高效的数据存储解决方案。
英语如下：
Title: Mechanical Hard Drive Industry Expected to See a Recovery as Artificial Intelligence Demands Boost Revenue
Keywords: Mechanical hard drive, Revenue growth, Solid-state drive
Recently, digital storage analyst Tom Caufield and industry expert Tom Gardner have jointly plotted the income of traditional mechanical hard drives since the late 1950s. Since IBM introduced the world’s first digital hard drive, traditional mechanical hard drives have been in constant ups and downs for nearly 70 years. Over this period, annual revenue from mechanical hard drives has experienced breakthrough growth from around $4 billion to over $20 billion, as well as some growth in the 1990s. However, revenue predictability was much worse, and fluctuations were greater.
According to Tom Caufield, the mechanical hard drive industry achieved breakthrough growth in the 1980s, with annual revenues increasing from around $4 billion to more than $20 billion in the decade. However, before the mid-2000s, industry revenue declined somewhat, but by the middle of the decade, the market stabilized and continued to grow, reaching a peak of around $37 billion in 2012. He believes that this may be related to the widespread floods in Thailand the previous year, which caused hard drive prices to reach a peak in 2012.
Tom Caufield also pointed out that the shipment volume of hard drives reached its peak in 2010, with 651 million units shipped. In comparison, the shipment volume of hard drives in 2022 is only 172 million units, and the shipment volume is expected to be around 127 million units in 2023, with a total capacity of less than 900 EB. Since 2012, due to the rise of solid-state drives (SSDs), hard drive revenue has been on a downward trend. However, Tom Caufield believes that this situation may change this year as the growing demand for storage from artificial intelligence may boost revenue growth for mechanical hard drives.
At present, mechanical hard drives are approaching their “golden years”, but with the development of technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data, there is still potential for new application scenarios and opportunities for mechanical hard drives in the future. At the same time, the rise of SSDs has also brought competition pressure to mechanical hard drives, prompting the industry to continuously innovate and break through. In this process, traditional mechanical hard drives will coexist with new storage technologies such as SSDs to provide users with more diversified and efficient data storage solutions.
【来源】https://www.ithome.com/0/746/350.htm
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