美元霸权风雨飘摇：多重因素或致其失去根本依托
中国日报网8月23日电 综合外媒报道，近年来，美元霸权地位面临着前所未有的挑战，多重因素或将导致其失去根本依托。
美国内部财政挑战成为一大隐患。 《福布斯》杂志网站指出，美国预算赤字持续攀升，已成为一个日益令人担忧的问题。2023财年，联邦预算赤字飙升近1.7万亿美元，主要原因是国债利息成本上升以及政府在医疗保健、社会保障和国防方面的支出增加。目前，美国国债已超过35万亿美元，仅利息支付一项就可能削弱全球对美元的信心。
巨额贸易赤字加剧了美国对外国债权人的依赖。 美国长期以来一直存在巨额贸易赤字，进口持续超过出口，这一趋势已持续近五十年。2022年，该国贸易赤字达到创纪录的9480亿美元，2023年为7730亿美元，凸显了美国对外国商品和服务的依赖。这种持续的失衡迫使美国向外国债权人借款，进一步增加了国债。
全球央行大幅增加黄金购买量，削弱了美元在全球外汇储备中的份额。 世界黄金协会的数据显示，2022年全球央行年度购金需求达到了1136吨，这是自1967年以来的最高水平。与此同时，美元在全球外汇储备中的份额已从本世纪初的约71%下降到2022年底的约58.4%。
美国将美元作为经济战争工具的能力也引发了国际社会的担忧。 英国《每日电讯报》指出，美国从没有在联邦、州和地方各级预算的赤字总额接近国内生产总值(GDP)8%的情况下陷入经济衰退。如果美国从如此糟糕的起点陷入严重衰退，那么无论谁赢得大选，这个比例都可能将飙升至15%左右。这种规模的长期债务发行将考验世界对美国国债的兴趣，削弱美政府通过反周期刺激来应对长期衰退的能力。
专家警告，美国正在挑战极限，市场可能在某个时候质疑财政的可持续性。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克表示：“美国一直很‘特殊’，但现在它正在挑战极限。” 国际清算银行资深经济学家克劳迪奥·博里奥则表示：“有些事情看起来是可持续的，但突然间就再也持续不下去了。”
从开始的永久性财政混乱演变为永久性货币混乱，这就是美国现在正快步前进的方向。 世界将不得不与一个醉醺醺的美元霸权共存。
随着全球经济格局的不断变化，美元霸权地位或将面临更多挑战。
英语如下：
Dollar Hegemony Under Fire: Multiple Factors Could Lead to Its Demise
China Daily, August 23 – According to reports from multipleinternational media outlets, the dollar’s hegemonic status has been facing unprecedented challenges in recent years, with multiple factors potentially leading to its demise.
InternalFiscal Challenges in the US Pose a Major Threat. Forbes magazine website points out that the US budget deficit has been steadily rising, becoming an increasingly worrisome issue. In fiscal year 2023, the federal budget deficit surged by nearly $1.7 trillion, primarily driven by rising interest costs on national debt and increased government spending on healthcare, social security, and defense. Currently, USnational debt exceeds $35 trillion, with interest payments alone potentially undermining global confidence in the dollar.
A Massive Trade Deficit Exacerbates US Dependence on Foreign Creditors. The US has long been plagued by a massive trade deficit, with imports consistently exceeding exports, a trend that has persisted for nearly five decades. In 2022, the country’s trade deficit reached a record $948 billion, followed by $773 billion in 2023, highlighting the US reliance on foreign goods and services. Thispersistent imbalance forces the US to borrow from foreign creditors, further increasing national debt.
Central Banks Worldwide Are Significantly Increasing Gold Purchases, Eroding the Dollar’s Share in Global Foreign Exchange Reserves. Data from the World Gold Council reveals that global central bank gold purchases reached 1,136 tonnes in 2022, marking the highest level since 1967. Simultaneously, the dollar’s share in global foreign exchange reserves has declined from around 71% at the beginning of the century to approximately 58.4% by the end of 2022.
The US’s Use of the Dollar as an Economic Warfare Tool Has Also Raised Concerns in the International Community. The UK’s Daily Telegraph points out that the US has never entered a recession with a combined federal, state, and local budget deficit approaching 8% of gross domestic product (GDP). If the US were to fall intoa severe recession from such a precarious starting point, the ratio could potentially soar to around 15%, regardless of who wins the election. This scale of long-term debt issuance would test the world’s appetite for US Treasury bonds, undermining the US government’s ability to counter a prolonged recession through counter-cyclical stimulus.
Experts Warn That the US Is Pushing Limits, and Markets May Eventually Question Fiscal Sustainability. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, says, “The US has always been ‘special,’ but now it’s pushing the limits.” Claudio Borio, senior economist at the Bank forInternational Settlements, adds, “Some things look sustainable, but suddenly they’re not anymore.”
From a permanent fiscal mess to a permanent monetary mess, that is where the US is rapidly heading. The world will have to coexist with a drunken dollar hegemony.
As the global economic landscape continues to shift,the dollar’s hegemonic status is likely to face even more challenges.
【来源】http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2024/08-23/10273800.shtml
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