Anthropic 的首席执行官 Amodei 在接受《纽约时报》记者 Ezra Klein 的播客访谈时，提出了一个引人关注的预测：领先的人工智能模型的开发成本将在不久的将来跃升至100亿美元的惊人水平。Amodei 指出，当前大型语言模型的训练成本已达到约1亿美元，甚至在某些情况下可能高达2亿至3亿美元。然而，随着技术的快速发展，这一数字预计将急剧增加。
据 Amodei 透露，目前正处于训练阶段以及计划在今年晚些时候或2023年初发布的模型，其成本预计将接近10亿美元。他进一步推测，到2025年和2026年，这一成本可能会翻倍，甚至达到50亿至100亿美元的区间。这一预测揭示了人工智能领域日益增长的资金需求，以及对先进计算资源的依赖程度。
这一趋势反映了AI研究和开发的资本密集性，以及模型复杂性与性能提升之间的紧密关系。随着人工智能模型的规模和能力不断扩大，其背后的经济影响和行业竞争格局也将发生深刻变化。随着成本的攀升，对于那些希望在这个领域保持领先地位的公司来说，获取充足的资金支持将变得至关重要。
英语如下：
**News Title:** “Anthropic CEO Sounds Alarm: AI Model Training Costs Set to Skyrocket to $10 Billion”
**Keywords:** Rising AI costs, Anthropic prediction, Billion-dollar models
**News Content:**
In an interview with journalist Ezra Klein on the New York Times podcast, Anthropic’s CEO, Amodei, made a startling forecast: the development costs for leading artificial intelligence models are poised to soar to a staggering $10 billion in the near future. Amodei pointed out that the current expense of training large language models already stands at around $100 million, with some instances reaching as high as $200 to $300 million. However, with the rapid pace of technological advancement, this figure is expected to escalate dramatically.
According to Amodei, models currently in training and slated for release later this year or early 2023 are projected to cost close to $1 billion. He speculates that by 2025 and 2026, these costs could double, potentially reaching the $25 to $50 billion range. This projection underscores the growing financial demands in the AI sector and the increasing reliance on advanced computational resources.
This trend reflects the capital-intensive nature of AI research and development, as well as the intimate correlation between model complexity and performance improvements. As AI models expand in scale and capability, the economic implications and competitive landscape of the industry will undergo profound changes. With escalating costs, securing adequate funding will become crucial for companies aiming to maintain a leading position in this field.
【来源】https://the-decoder.com/anthropic-ceo-believes-leading-ai-models-will-soon-cost-up-to-ten-billion-dollars/
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