【人民币对美元汇率新年开局动荡 下探七年新高】中新社北京1月31日电 (夏宾)2024年伊始，中国外汇市场呈现新年首个工作日人民币对美元汇率的显著调整。截至北京时间1月31日16时30分，境内外汇市场上在岸人民币对美元即期汇率报收7.1792，较去年12月31日最后一个交易日下滑约800个基点；离岸人民币对美元汇率则报7.1859，较前一交易日下挫600个基点。这一变动使人民币对美元汇率刷新了自2017年以来的新低点，显示出较强的压力。
业内专家分析认为，人民币汇率近期的震荡走低主要受多重因素影响。首先，全球经济增长前景存在不确定性，特别是美联储持续紧缩货币政策导致美元指数走强，间接施压人民币。其次，中美贸易关系及人民币国际化进程中的政策预期变化也是汇率波动的重要考量因素。此外，鉴于中国经济面临一定下行压力以及资本流出压力，人民币汇率短期承压也在情理之中。
展望全年走势，市场普遍预计人民币汇率将在年内保持双向波动格局，但总体上可能围绕一定区间内窄幅震荡，以反映中国经济基本面与外部环境的变化。中国政府将继续坚持市场化改革方向，并通过一系列宏观调控措施来维护金融市场的稳定，同时也会注重人民币汇率形成机制的不断完善，为国际贸易和投资创造更为稳定的货币环境。
英语如下：
News Title: “Chinese Yuan Hits New Year Low against US Dollar, Market Anticipates Steady Fluctuations for the Year Ahead”
Keywords: Renminbi Depreciation, Dollar Appreciation, Exchange Rate Volatility
News Content: BEIJING, January 31, 2024 (Xinhua) – The Chinese foreign exchange market began the new year with significant adjustments in the yuan-to-dollar exchange rate on the first working day of 2024. As of January 31, 2024, at 16:30 Beijing Time, the onshore yuan traded at 7.1792 against the US dollar on the China Foreign Exchange交易中心, down approximately 800 basis points from the last trading day of December 2023; the offshore yuan traded at 7.1859, falling 600 basis points from the previous day. This move has refreshed the lowest point since 2017, reflecting a stronger downward pressure on the yuan.
Industry experts attribute the recent volatility of the renminbi’s exchange rate mainly to multiple factors. Firstly, global economic growth prospects remain uncertain, particularly as the Federal Reserve continues its tightening monetary policy, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and exert indirect pressure on the yuan. Secondly, changes in policy expectations regarding Sino-US trade relations and the process of人民币 internationalization also play a crucial role in the currency’s fluctuations. Additionally, considering China’s economic downturn pressures and capital outflow pressures, it is reasonable that the yuan faces short-term pressure on the exchange rate.
Looking ahead to the full-year trend, markets generally anticipate a dual-directional fluctuation pattern for the yuan’s exchange rate within the year, but it is expected to broadly oscillate within a certain range, reflecting the changes in China’s economic fundamentals and external environment. The Chinese government will continue to adhere to the path of market-oriented reforms, employing various macroprudential measures to maintain financial market stability. Simultaneously, they will focus on continuously improving the yuan’s exchange rate formation mechanism to create a more stable currency environment for international trade and investment.
【来源】http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2024/01-31/10156379.shtml
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