中信建投陈果：A股目前处于底部区域，2024年最终有望走出“小牛市”
近日，中信建投证券首席经济学家陈果表示，A股市场已具备底部区域的特征，无论是宏观周期、市场估值，还是结构特征，都体现了这一点。他认为，2024年，无论是盈利的改善，还是估值的扩张，都具备“小牛市”基础。至于后续能否有更大的行情，还要看后面内外部因素边际改善的幅度。
陈果分析称，从宏观经济周期来看，中国经济已经进入新一轮上行周期，这将为A股市场提供有力支撑。此外，随着国内政策逐步宽松，市场流动性将得到改善，有利于市场估值的提升。在结构特征方面，陈果指出，当前A股市场的行业配置已经趋于合理，新兴产业和传统产业之间的结构调整将有助于提高市场整体盈利水平。
陈果还强调，投资者应关注上市公司的基本面，寻找具有持续竞争优势和成长潜力的优质标的。在他看来，新能源、新材料、高端制造等领域的龙头企业将受益于产业升级和政策扶持，值得重点关注。
关于2024年A股的投资策略，陈果表示，投资者可适当关注低估值蓝筹股，以及具备核心竞争力的创新型企业。此外，他建议投资者关注国内外经济数据的变化，以便及时调整投资组合。
总之，中信建投证券首席经济学家陈果认为，A股市场目前已处于底部区域，2024年有望走出“小牛市”。投资者应关注宏观经济周期、市场估值和结构特征的变化，把握住投资机会。
英语如下：
Title: CITIC Securities Chen Guo: A-shares May Enter a “Small Bull Market” in 2024, and the Market Bottom Has Appeared
Keywords: Bottom area, small bull market, investment
News content: CITIC Securities Chen Guo: A-shares are currently in the bottom area, and there is hope for a “small bull market” in 2024.
Recently, Chen Guo, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the A-share market has the characteristics of the bottom area, whether it is the macro cycle, market valuation, or structural features. He believes that by 2024, both improved profitability and expanded valuation will have the basis for a “small bull market.” Whether there will be larger market movements later depends on the extent of marginal improvement in internal and external factors.
Chen Guo分析称，从宏观经济周期来看，中国经济已经进入新一轮上行周期，这将为A股市场提供有力支撑。In addition, with the gradual relaxation of domestic policies, market liquidity will be improved, which is beneficial to the promotion of market valuation. In terms of structural characteristics, Chen Guo pointed out that the current A-share market industry allocation has become reasonable, and the adjustment between emerging industries and traditional industries will help improve the overall profitability of the market.
Chen Guo also stressed that investors should pay attention to the fundamentals of listed companies and look for high-quality targets with sustainable competitive advantages and growth potential. In his view, leading enterprises in sectors such as new energy, new materials, and high-end manufacturing will benefit from industrial upgrading and policy support, worth paying close attention to.
Regarding the investment strategy for A-shares in 2024, Chen Guo said that investors can pay appropriate attention to low-valuation blue chip stocks, as well as innovative enterprises with core competitiveness. In addition, he suggested that investors pay attention to changes in domestic and foreign economic data in order to adjust their investment portfolios in a timely manner.
In summary, CITIC Securities Chief Economist Chen Guo believes that the A-share market is currently in the bottom area and there is hope for a “small bull market” in 2024. Investors should pay attention to changes in the macroeconomic cycle, market valuation, and structural characteristics and grasp investment opportunities.
【来源】https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240121A06AII00
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